Padraig Purcell continues his reflections on the current intensified threat Ukraine faces from Russian military aggression.
Surrounding Ukraine
In late November Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, shared his fears of “the full military integration of Belarus into Russia’s military structures and doctrines”, saying that “This poses new challenges to NATO’s collective security, and the Alliance must adjust its plans, strategies, and tactics accordingly and be prepared for a possible response”.
On Nov. 29, Belarusian defense chief Viktor Khrenin announced plans to hold exercises “jointly with our counterparts, our major strategic ally – the Russian Federation”.
As Russian and Belarusian forces declared that they plan to hold joint so-called “exercises” near Ukraine’s northern border, Russia appears to be pushing to increase the long-planned integration of their forces with Belarusian forces. Such a move would bring Russian forces right up to EU borders and would virtually surround Ukraine.
Poland and Lithuania are effectively on high alert for a Kremlin military attempt to “take” the 100 kilometer-long Suwalki Gap. This would create a land-bridge between Russia and Belarus with Russia’s Baltic Sea enclave Kaliningrad. At the same time Russian President Vladimir Putin says it is crossing a “red line” for the U.S. and NATO to assist in the defense of Ukraine.
“This 'doublespeak' from the Kremlin signifies a desire to expand Russian borders whilst at the same time trying to pressure the U.S., EU, NATO and Ukraine into not defending their own territory and partners.“
Hysteria or a Very Real Danger?
Will Russia invade Ukraine again? Despite the Kremlin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov putting such fears down to “hysteria”, it is worth noting that Russia has invaded Ukraine on several past occasions, as well as encroaching into many other countries in the last 100 years plus. These have included Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Czechoslovakia, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Iran, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Mongolia, Poland, Romania, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Vietnam, and Yugoslavia.
Is it “hysteria” for neighboring nations to build defenses when Russian forces and heavy weapons mass near their borders? Evidence from history paints Russia as a professional, experienced and serial invader. It is against this context that Ukraine and its allies are working together to deter, demotivate and de-escalate Russia’s illegal expansion intentions in the most peaceful and economical manner possible.
Today, intelligence sources show images of Russian forces building up within and near the borders of Ukraine. The Kremlin has not yet explained its mobilization of forces and heavy weapons, citing a right to do what they wish on their own territory.
Is this buildup an intimidation exercise to seek concessions from Ukraine and its allies? Such concessions would be intended to help Russia expand control over Ukraine and make itself look stronger as a result.
Uniting against the Threat
Learning from the mistakes of 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbas region of Ukraine, Western nations surprised Kremlin advisors and strategists with unified and strong statements of support for Ukraine. In doing so they signaled significant economic and political costs to be imposed upon Kremlin entities should the Kremlin advance physically into Ukraine again.
Intense discussions are ongoing in the free world about how to peacefully deter and demotivate the Kremlin from pursuing its tactics of intimidation; moreover, the suggestion that – if “provoked” – it could launch an assault.
With reference to President Biden's call with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, the White House stated: “President Biden briefed leaders on his call with President Putin, in which he discussed the serious consequences of Russian military action in Ukraine and the need to de-escalate and return to diplomacy.”
The leaders showed great unity of purpose in “their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. They called for Russia to “reduce tensions and engage in diplomacy”. They also agreed to remain united and in close contact with the EU, NATO and other allies and partners to de-escalate the present volatile and dangerous situation.
According to agreements between the U.S. and Russian leaders, consultations are to be held between U.S. and Kremlin specialists as a prelude to the leaders meeting again to clarify intentions and reduce tensions. No date has yet been announced for the next virtual meeting.
The U.S. and the E.U. have agreed on the need to impose swift and severe costs upon Russia if it escalates its aggression in Ukraine. They called for Russia to de-escalate its military build-up in and around Ukraine; to implement the Minsk Agreement fully as an agreed path to peace in Ukraine; to return to diplomacy.
"Security in Europe requires adherence to principles." new German leader Olaf Scholz commented. "This includes the inviolability of borders. No one can flip through history textbooks to redraw borders. It would be unacceptable if there was a threat to Ukraine.”
But the evidence suggests that there is a very real threat to the independence of Ukraine from the massive build-up of Russian forces now encircling the country.
As Russia now seeks to integrate into Belarusian territory and moves closer to the EU from the East, a new threat manifests from the combination of physical intimidation, hybrid warfare and political bullying by Kremlin leaders. This direct challenge involves using the presence of military force to try to coerce concessions out of Ukraine and its Western allies – blackmail by any other name.
Padraig Purcell, Irish long-time pro-Ukrainian volunteer, activist, trainer and mediator.
