The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in the Azov Sea region remains tense, and Russia could be preparing to launch an amphibious assault on the Ukrainian coast there, according to Ukraine’s top naval commander, Admiral Ihor Voronchenko.
Russia has nearly 120 vessels of various types challenging Ukraine’s security in the region, although only 36 of them are currently capable of performing naval operations, and only 24 are fully armed, Voronchenko said during Ukrainian television’s Svoboda Slova talk show on the ICTV channel late on Oct. 29.
However, he warned that the buildup of Russia’s naval power could herald preparations for an amphibious landing on Ukraine’s Azov Sea coast. He said that Russian military activities recently spotted by Ukraine indicate the Kremlin is making preparations for such an operation.
“Such drills have been conducted in the Caspian Sea – the landing of troops from seaborne carriers,” the Ukrainian admiral said.
However, he said Russia would only launch an amphibious assault on Ukraine’s mainland across the Azov Sea when it was confident of rapid military success.
Until then, Russia will continue to harass merchant shipping to Ukraine’s major ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, damaging Ukraine’s economy in the region, he said.
At the same time, Ukraine’s deployment of several new combat vessels to the area has forced Russia to ease its pressure on merchant shipping, Voronchenko said.
“We’ve amplified our efforts, having deployed a patrol boat group, which is already serving its combat duty,” he said, adding that last week Russian forces had not stopped or searched a single Ukrainian merchant ship.
“But I believe a further escalation could also erupt in the Black Sea,” Voronchenko added.
Confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in the Azov Sea has heightened drastically over the past several months, with Russia effectively taking full control of the sea, in violation of a 2003 treaty with Ukraine that placed the Azov Sea under the shared sovereignty of both countries.
In May 2018, having opened the Kerch Bridge between Russia and Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, Moscow started harassing non-Russian shipping in the region. Since April, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure, Russian forces have stopped and searched at least 100 merchant ships crossing the sea, causing severe economic losses for the Ukrainian ports.
