Russia has successfully positioned its troops to launch a rapid invasion of Ukraine from the north and east, according to a March 8 report by the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based defense think tank.
The research paper titled “Russia’s Military Posture: Ground Forces Order of Battle” gives a comprehensive review of Russian military power deployed near Ukraine and the three Baltic states, nations that face an immediate threat from Moscow, according to the institute.
Since 2012, the Russian leadership, particularly Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and chief of staff Valeriy Gerasimov, resurrected divisions and corps echelons in the organizational structure of Russian ground forces, thus relieving their commanders of overwhelming responsibilities on the large-scale and fast-paced battlefield, the report says.
Additionally, many of Russia’s combat formations, deployed to the country’s western and southern military districts, were enhanced in terms of their command-and-control chains, with many of headquarters particularly moved closer to Ukrainian border, presumably in order to assist logistic and combat support of Russia’s ongoing invasion in Donbas, as well as any future engagement.
Thus, the report shows, the 20th Army’s headquarters was in 2015 moved from the city of Nizhniy Novgorod to Voronezh, located just some 120 miles (190 kilometers) from the Ukrainian border.
The army’s combat formations, such as 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, or 144th Motorized Rifle Division, are deployed just between 45 and 60 miles (72-96 kilometers) from Ukraine to the northeastern direction. According to the report, the 20th Army divisions are likely deployed for a possible rapid advance toward Kyiv, Kharkiv or Luhansk.
From the west, Ukraine can be rapidly assaulted along the Azov Sea coastline by the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, the regiments of which are deployed in the Rostov Oblast just 20-30 miles from Ukraine’s eastern border, now uncontrolled by Ukrainian authorities. Along with the mentioned forces, Kremlin’s blitz offense against the whole Ukraine can also be joined by Russian-controlled troops deployed in Transnistria, and the already occupied Crimea and Donbas.
A map of Russia’s armed forces formations deployed in close proximity to Ukraine’s borderline (Institute for the Study of War)
“These forces pose a significant conventional threat to Ukraine, disposed under multiple operational level headquarters that could plan and conduct simultaneous mechanized thrusts along several axes,” the report’s authors, Catherine Harris and Frederick W. Kagan, acknowledge. “Such an attack would accord well with Soviet operational art, which emphasizes the imperative of presenting the enemy with multiple dilemmas simultaneously and in sequence.”
However, the report continues, Russia’s approach to the Baltics suggests no obvious intention to conduct such large-scale conventional mechanized offensives, similar to that predicted for Ukraine. While as many as three mechanized divisions are deployed against Ukraine, the Baltic states face just Russian airborne division near their borders, which is non-relevant for the strategy of all-out mechanized blitzkrieg.
“The air assault division, separate motorized rifle brigades, and heavy Spetsnaz (an acronym for special operations forces in Russia) presence near the Baltics, however, offers a much more suitable platform for hybrid warfare,” the report reads.
Thus, from the think tank’s perspective, Estonia, Latvia, and Lituania, all being NATO member states, may more likely face disguised forms of warfare, similar to that seen in 2014 in Ukraine’s Crimea and Donbas, “including the use of soldiers out of uniform, disinformation campaigns, and the infiltration and commandeering of vigilante groups.”
Due to disaffected Russian minorities, as well as Russia’s ever-present cyber and information operations, and unprepared own law enforcement and security services, the Baltic states are particularly vulnerable to this type of war.
“U.S. leaders and American partners in Europe should re-evaluate Putin’s current military positioning and the weakness in Ukraine and the Baltic region that leaves these states vulnerable to various forms of attack,” the report suggests.
