The third wave of COVID-19 that is currently gaining momentum in Ukraine will have a devastating impact on public health, with more infections, more severe cases and higher mortality than the autumn wave, according to the National Academy of Science.
The spring wave will last until mid-May with the biggest spike expected in early April, said Volodymyr Halytskiy, a senior researcher at the molecular immunology department of the Palladin Biochemistry Institute.
In April, Ukraine will see 40,000 infections and over 1,000 deaths each day, Halytskiy predicts. The number of new coronavirus cases per day has already risen from around 4,000 in early February to 10,000 at the beginning of March.
The reason for the projected increase is that one of the main viral receptors in the human body, angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), becomes more active with increasing daylight hours.
Coronavirus does not infect random cells, only ones that have viral receptors or protein molecules like ACE2 attached. Such cells are located in the lungs, arteries, heart, kidney, and intestines.
However, as COVID-19 mainly spreads through the air in microdroplets, the lungs are especially susceptible.
“A large amount of these receptors is expressed in the lung epithelium,” Halytskiy said. “Accordingly, there is a sharp (several hundredfold) increase in susceptibility and lung tissue becomes the main object of viral attack.”
“Our findings are based on studying the epidemic during the spring-summer period of last year in the Northern Hemisphere and the summer-autumn period of last year in the Southern Hemisphere,” he added.
Fast vaccination might have prevented this, Halytskiy said. However, the government failed to bring the vaccine to Ukraine on time. The first batch arrived in Kyiv on Feb. 23 and patients started getting their first shots the following day. People in many countries around the globe started being vaccinated two months and a half earlier.
As of March 11, only 30,000 people, 0.07% of Ukraine’s population of 42 million, have been vaccinated. At the current pace, Ukraine will be able to vaccinate every citizen in 58 years.
The opportunity is gone and nothing can prevent the spring wave now, according to Halytskiy’s colleague Semen Yesylevskyy, a biophysicist and leading researcher at the Institute of Physics.
“With a very high probability, we can say that we have an epidemic of, so to speak, the second generation coronavirus variants, including the British variant,” Yesylevskyy said.
“Such variants of coronavirus cause a sharp, stormy wave (of infection). But then it quickly subsides. At least that was the case in several countries — not every single one though. We can hope that maybe at least some relief will take place,” Yesylevskyy told the Kyiv Post.
“When this happens, there will be a time gap to vaccinate the population before the next wave,” he added.
Halytskiy urged Ukrainian officials to accelerate the vaccination drive and increase capacity for laboratory diagnostics.
The Halytskiy-led team of biochemists predicted the dangers of the spring wave in the fall of last year. The Ministry of Health, however, did not listen, according to Halytskiy.
“No one was interested,” he said, adding that the so-called adaptive quarantine introduced on May 22 cannot prevent the spread of infection.
Under adaptive quarantine, restrictions vary from region to region, depending on the seriousness of the COVID-19 situation there.
“All possible anti-epidemic measures should be taken immediately. Is that expensive? Unfortunately, this is the price of procrastination and inaction,” Halytskiy said.
The scientist called on the government to impose a new lockdown and stop public transport. He also believes it is time to deploy temporary hospitals, as local officials did in Wuhan, China, from where the coronavirus spread around the world.
