It finally happened.
After its stealth invasion of Crimea in 2014, followed by more than four years of covert combat in the eastern Donbas, Russia let its mask drop in launching an open and unprovoked act of war against Ukraine.
Russian naval forces, sailing under their official colors on Nov. 25, attacked and seized three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Black Sea, injuring at least three Ukrainian sailors, capturing 24, and jailing them on absurd charges: violating the borders of the Russian Federation.
The incident, which took place in Ukrainian territorial waters near Kremlin-occupied Crimea and in international waters, has opened a new, maritime front in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
For the first time in its 26-year history, Ukraine has officially moved to war footing, imposing martial law in 10 regions for 30 days. Meanwhile, Russia has rapidly concentrated more troops and weapons on land and at sea all around Ukraine, Ukraine’s military says.
Not welcome
The incident unfolded after Ukraine, seeking to build its defenses in the Azov Sea, decided to send a small naval group of two gunboats, the Berdyansk and the Nikopol, and a tug named Yany Kapu, from Odesa to Mariupol.
Their course ran through the Kerch Strait between Russia and the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory of Crimea.
But when they got to the strait, it became clear they were not welcome.
The Ukrainian ships followed the procedures of Ukraine’s 2003 treaty with Russia on freedom of navigation in the region, and in early hours of Nov. 25, notified Russian shipping controllers that they were drawing closer to the strait.
They got no reply.
After some time, the Russians ordered the Ukrainian navy vessels to go to a waiting area, and Russian coast guard ships started to shadow them. At the crack of dawn, a Russian coast guard ship, the Don, rammed the Ukrainian tug twice, trying to force the group to stop.
The Ukrainian vessels continued maneuvering, only to find out later that the Russians had already blocked the arch of the Crimean Bridge, which straddles the straits, with a giant tanker.
After a nine-hour chase and standoff, the Ukrainian ships decided to make a break for international waters and return to Odesa. It was then that Russian forces were ordered to open fire on the Ukrainian vessels, in international waters in the Black Sea, 22 kilometers offshore.
Supported by two Ka‑52 helicopters and a Su‑30 jet fighter, the Russian ships targeted the Ukrainian gunboats with 30-millimeter cannon rounds, forcing them to stop.
Three of the Berdyansk’s crew were wounded by shrapnel during the assault.
According to Ukraine’s top naval commander, Admiral Ihor Voronchenko, the Ukrainian vessels did not return fire and told the Russians by radio that they would not do so.
“(By coming to blows) we would provoke a further escalation of the situation,” Voronchenko told the Kyiv Post on Nov. 26. “Frankly speaking, I wouldn’t like to say what the outcome of that would have been.”
It didn’t stop the Russians opening fire on the Ukrainian navy vessels, however.
Russian special forces then captured the Ukrainian vessels and their crews. A court in the city of Kerch in Russian-occupied Crimea on Nov. 28 ordered the captured Ukrainian sailors to be detained for two months ahead of their trial for violating Russia’s borders.
Arms race
This was not the first attempt by Ukrainian naval forces to pass through the Kerch Strait and enter the Azov Sea.
A previous group of two military vessels — the search and rescue ship Donbas and the tug Korets — made it safely through the Kerch Strait on Sept. 23 and got to the Ukrainian port of Berdyansk. This was the first time any Ukrainian navy ships had entered the Azov Sea via the Kerch Strait since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
But on their way through the strait, the group was followed by up to 10 Russian warships, and flown over by fighter jets.
Both times, the Ukrainian ships were sent to reinforce the country’s extremely weak naval presence in the Azov Sea, countering the rapid Russian military buildup that started after the opening of the Crimean Bridge in May.
Over the next few months, Russia started stopping merchant ships coming to and from the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, inflicting heavy economic losses on Ukraine.
By late October, Russia had already deployed over 120 military craft of various types in the Azov Sea alone, according to the head of Ukraine’s State Border Service, Colonel-General Petro Tsyhykal.
Russia’s Azov Sea fleet includes corvettes carrying Kalibr cruise missiles, patrol boats, and amphibious landing craft. Beyond the Kerch Strait, it is supplemented by the far more powerful Black Sea fleet.
Such a force clearly outstrips Ukraine’s tiny navy, which lost nearly 70 percent of its craft when Russia invaded Crimea. The Ukrainian navy now includes only one frigate, three amphibious landing vessels, two missile cutters, eight gunboats, one minesweeper, and around 20 other small auxiliary vessels.
The Ukrainian navy force in the Azov Sea consists of around 16 warships, supplemented by 10 patrol boats and 30 small cutters of the Ukrainian Border Service’s coast guard.
To prevent a total loss of control of the vulnerable region, Ukraine’s command in September started to set up a new naval base in Berdyansk, which was in future to have been home for two Island-class cutters provided by the United States, as well as a fleet of six Gurza-M patrol boats produced in Kyiv.
But the Nov. 25 clash showed that Russia would not tolerate any increase in Ukraine’s naval forces in the Azov Sea, and that the Kremlin is now ignoring its 2003 treaty with Ukraine on freedom of navigation and the shared use of the Azov Sea.
Two of the Gurza-M patrol boats were captured by Russia on Nov. 25.
And as of Nov. 29, Ukrainian shipping through the Kerch Strait was still being blocked by Russia, with a total of 35 merchant vessels unable to exit or enter the Azov Sea, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure.
Gathering storm
Russia’s act of war also provoked fears of an all-out Russian invasion. Ukraine took the unprecedented decision of imposing martial law in the 10 oblasts bordering Russia, or Russian-controlled Transnistria, or bordering the Black or Azov seas.
According to the military, the threat is real.
Shortly after the Nov. 25 incident, Ukraine’s military reported a large buildup of Russian forces dangerously close to the country’s borders.
According to deputy chief of Ukraine’s Chief Intelligence Directorate Vadym Skybytskiy, as of now, Russia can marshal against Ukraine at least 25 battalion tactical groups, supported by up to 500 warplanes and 340 helicopters.
That, added to the air defenses Russia has already installed on Ukrainian territory in the Donbas and in Crimea, would ensure Russia had air superiority were it to launch an offensive on Ukraine.
“Since 2013, the Russian Federation has been modernizing its entire airfield network along the Ukrainian border, upgrading its fleet of combat aircraft, and expanding the capabilities of army aviation,” Skybytskiy said on Nov. 27 during an emergency briefing in the Ministry of Defense.
Furthermore, after the Nov. 25 incident Russia immediately reinforced its air defenses in Crimea by deploying a fourth S‑400 Triumph surface-to-air missile unit. It was operational by Nov. 29.
Ukraine, while having approximately 250,000 active duty military personnel, is outgunned in the air and at sea, and would fare badly in an all-out war with Russia.
Mykhailo Samus, the deputy director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, said that on Nov. 25 Russia was just one step away from all-out war with Ukraine.
“I wouldn’t rule out the Russian leadership taking a (rash) decision in such a tense situation,” the expert told the Kyiv Post. “The probability of full-scale war is high right now.”
“There’s no doubt at all that what happened in the Kerch Strait was an act of war and an outright violation of international maritime law. For Russia, doing that was an immense risk, as it brings its confrontation with the whole world to a new level.”
Samus said the naval attack probably occurred because, after the successful passage of Ukrainian craft through the strait on Sept. 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered that all Ukrainian military redeployments to the Azov Sea to be stopped.
“In this situation, the strongest involvement of the global community is needed, but the world, as always, has shown a very weak response,” Samus said.
“But this act of war at sea creates a very bad precedent in global navigation, and all major maritime trade powers, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, must have a strong interest in curtailing such practices by Russia.”
Western leaders need to stop expressing deep concern and impose a new package of sanctions that would directly and painfully target the Russian leadership, Samus said.
At the same time, he added, the attack clearly shows that Ukraine has to concentrate on building up its naval forces. The nation has no more than two years to save the situation, he warned.
“The new situation we are in, in particular, requires a very strong arsenal of anti-ship missiles on both (the Black and Azov) seas,” Samus said.
“We desperately need to take everything our allies can give us: technology, weapons, investment, military aid, and training.”
“Building a navy is now … a matter of national survival for us.”
