United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan issued an ominous warning on Friday that Russia is poised to begin a military invasion of Ukraine and that it could begin with an attack on Kyiv.
He said that Russia had gathered all the elements necessary for a full-scale invasion, which would include land, sea, and air power.
“If you look at the disposition of forces both in Belarus and in Russia, the Russians are in a position to mount a military invasion any day now,” explained US President Joe Biden’s top national security advisor.
More than 140,000 Russian troops are massed at Ukraine’s eastern and northern borders, a number that continues to increase, and Russian warships have entered the Black Sea on Ukraine’s southern border.
In addition, Russia and Belarus began joint military exercises on February 10, with nearly 50,000 troops involved, a far higher number than are generally used.
The New York Times reported that an unnamed US official said that Russia is discussing next Wednesday as the target date for the start of military action.
The official acknowledged the possibility that mentioning a particular date could be part of a Russian disinformation effort.
Sullivan noted that earlier intelligence had suggested that any Russian military action, if it were to happen, would only take place after the Winter Olympics ended on February 20, but that scenario had changed.
He said that the US had no concrete evidence that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin had made a decision regarding a military invasion.
“We believe he very well may give the final go order,” he added, “but we are not standing here before you today saying the order has been given.”
The US national security chief suggested that with the alignment of Russian troops on three sides of Ukraine a military invasion could begin in several ways, including
“a rapid assault on the city of Kyiv.“
Sullivan explained that other options that Russia might utilize in an invasion included a land grab of Ukrainian territory or a widespread attack on large cities.
He called on all U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, and suggested that they contact the Embassy if logistical or financial challenges made it difficult for them to do so.
He explained that the US military would not enter Ukraine to rescue Americans who had decided that it was safe to stay until it was too late.
Sullivan also warned that the Kremlin could organize a “false flag” operation to blame Ukraine for provoking the Russian military reaction.
“Security analysts have surmised that Russia might conjure up an attack on the part of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-supported separatists, and blame it on Ukraine’s military.“
Sullivan underscored that Putin still had time to step back from the brink of war and that the US and its NATO allies were ready to continue diplomatic negotiations with the Kremlin.
He added that should diplomacy fail, then NATO and the EU were fully united in proceeding with stringent sanctions against Russia.
“Russia’s power and influence will diminish if Russia invades,” asserted Sullivan.
He said that he expected Biden to engage with Putin in the next few days to further diplomatic discussions at the highest level.
In response to the continued Russian military build-up, Biden ordered 3,000 additional troops sent to Poland.
