The United States indicated on Dec. 14, 2021 that it would provide strong support for an anti-Russian insurgency should the Kremlin decide to invade Ukraine, the New York Times reported.
The article noted that both U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have warned their Russian counterparts in recent telephone calls that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would probably be followed by a bloody insurgency that the U.S. would support. It states that senior Biden officials have also made clear that the Ukrainian insurgency would involve both the CIA and the Pentagon.
“If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. “And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.”
With 100,000 Russian troops already massed on Ukraine’s eastern border, Russia continues to escalate and prepare for war. On Dec. 14, Ukraine experienced a massive cyber-attack that brought down many government websites. Experts say that all indications are that the source of the attacks leads back to Russia. The New York Times reported the same day that Russian saboteurs “trained in urban warfare and in using explosives” have entered Ukraine to prepare the groundwork for an invasion.
The Pentagon is already working on a plan to provide Ukraine with battlefield intelligence that could help the country more quickly respond to a possible Russian invasion.
“The number one thing we can do is real time actionable intelligence that says, ‘The Russians are coming over the berm,’” said Evelyn Farkas, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia in the Obama administration, in a Dec. 23 New York Times article. “We tell them, and they use that to target the Russians.”
Yet, perhaps Ukraine’s best chances for success in an all-out war with Russia would be not in a direct confrontation but through an asymmetrical military approach.
In an article for the Atlantic Council, former Defense Minister Andrii Zahorodniuk, currently chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies, noted that while Ukraine has a military force of 500,000 well-trained and sufficiently motivated personnel, that may not be enough. He suggests that a better alternative for success against a Russian invasion force would be asymmetrical warfare with Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces playing “a crucial leadership role in the guerilla warfare efforts.”
Zahorodniuk enumerated a list of military items that would help Ukraine to undertake an effective asymmetrical military campaign, including portable air defense systems, anti-tank missiles, anti-ship missiles, and counter-battery radars. He also put drones, sniper rifles, anti-sniper equipment, night vision goggles, encrypted radio communication devices, and satellite communication devices on his list.
Several U.S. legislators are supporting increased military support for Ukraine and the strengthening of sanctions against Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project through a legislative proposal deemed the Guaranteeing Ukraine’s Autonomy by Reinforcing its Defense Act (GUARD Act).
