The 2019 European Parliament elections will determine the European Union’s direction for the next five years. Concerns arise for Ukraine as populist parties, who are projected to stake a significant claim in the polls, could alter the EU-Ukraine status quo. The voting ends on May 26.
The European Parliament has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine’s political and territorial integrity as well as an advocate for tougher sanctions against Russia for its dismembering war against Ukraine.
While political forecasts place a coalition of long-dominant, pro-European groupings in the lead, populist parties are estimated to make up a third of the seats in parliament. This sparks concern for Ukraine, as several of these right-wing parties have expressed support for Russia and Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin.
The parliament consists of 751 members from the 28 EU states, elected by citizens, according to the EU Observer. The number of members elected from each country is determined by the population. Germany has the largest number of members, 96, with the smallest states of Cyprus, Estonia, Luxembourg and Malta having only six members each, according to the EU Observer. As for the impact of the European Parliament elections on Ukraine, political scientist Olivier Védrine told the Kyiv Post that Ukraine’s further integration into the EU, as well as ongoing sanctions against Russia, lie in the hands of Ukrainians themselves.
If President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s policies are effective, Vedrine said “this will truly be the road towards the European Union. If his policies do not work and there are real problems with regards to the implementation of the reform policy and the fight against corruption, Ukraine will move away from the European Union.”
European Parliament 2019 seat projections
Currently, the largest political group is the center-right European People’s Party, with 217 members. Seat projections for the 2019 election based on opinion polls show that the European People’s Party and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats will get 180 and 161 seats, respectively, out of the total of 751, not even a majority when combined. These numbers, however, constitute a drop when compared to the 2014 elections – the EPP losing 32 seats and S&D losing 41.
The two parties maintain strong relations with Ukraine, advocating for a “long-term support plan,” emphasizing the importance of economic, military, and humanitarian assistance, democratic reforms, a visa-free regime, and Ukraine’s EU integration. They are also vocal in their condemnation of Russia’s illegal seizure of Crimea and its war in the Donbas.
In third place, the pro-European Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe is expected to take 104 seats. Their manifesto urges “greater EU support to the democratically-elected administration of Ukraine and the EU to continue its economic sanctions against Russia.”
In fourth place, the right-wing, populist European Alliance of Peoples and Nations may get 85 seats. This bloc takes a soft and supportive stance on Russia and includes Matteo Salvini’s Lega Nord and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.
The rise of populism
“There is currently in Western societies, both European and American, a critical societal fracture,” Védrine said in explaining the rise of global populism. “Some citizens feel left behind – they feel as though they have not reaped the benefits of globalization, and this population is becoming disillusioned with their elites… they take refuge in extreme solutions or in votes for populist or ultra-conservative parties.”
Global populism has manifested itself in such events as Brexit, the June 23, 2016, referendum in which a 52 percent majority of British voters supported leaving the EU, and the 2016 election of Donald J. Trump as U.S. president.
The right-wing and Russia
While an affinity for Russia remains a point of contention across the right-wing community, some politicians have expressed unrelenting support for Moscow, advocating for an easing of sanctions against the Kremlin and, in some case, recognizing the military invasion and illegal annexation of Crimea as legitimate.
Matteo Salvini, the Italian deputy prime minister who is a leader of the European Alliance of People’s and Nations and the Lega Nord, has often expressed his approval of Putin. In an interview with the Washington Post, he stated that the Euromaidan Revolution, which ended Kremlin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych’s rule in 2014, was “fake.” He has, on other occasions, asserted that Russia’s annexation of Crimea is legal. As for sanctions against Russia, Salvini called them a “social, cultural, and economic absurdity.”
These views have been reiterated by other component right-wing parties, such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, who supports lifting EU sanctions against Russia. The National Rally has also received funding from Russia, including €9 million in loans in 2014 for the party’s election campaign the following year.
Should Ukraine worry?
The president of the European Commission and the composition of the European Parliament are critical Ukraine’s relations with the EU, which Ukraine wants to join.
Vasily Filipсhuk, chairman of the board of the International Center for Policy Studies, told UNIAN news agency that “there will be more sympathizers of Russia who, despite the aggression, will talk about the normalization of relations with her.” He also said Ukraine will have fewer friends in the new parliament.
However, Védrine said that, despite an increased right-wing presence, their influence will not be great enough to change policies significantly as the dominant three parties will retain an effective majority.
“There should not be many changes, but be careful, I do not think we will have new sanctions” against Russia, Védrine said, citing “Ukraine fatigue.” The West has been disappointed by Ukraine’s reform progress, he said. Many more internal changes are necessary from Ukraine to advance its EU integration hopes.
“I think that the results of the European elections will be less important for Ukraine than the results of Zelenskiy’s reform policies. Zelenskiy must succeed. The pressure on his political path is enormous, because the Ukrainians and the EU are waiting. There will be no second chance.”
