It took almost five years of war with Kremlin-led proxies for Ukraine’s leaders to finally start paying attention to the area where the country is most vulnerable to Russian aggression – the sea.
A loud wake-up call came on Nov. 25, when Russia’s coast guard and special forces carried out an unprovoked attack on three Ukrainian navy vessels in international waters in the Black Sea. In one moment, it was shown that Ukraine’s southern, coastal flank was dangerously vulnerable, and that its 250,000-strong land army would be of little use against a Russian takeover of the Azov Sea area.
The Ukrainian navy, the General Staff’s unloved and neglected child for all these years of war, is outnumbered and outgunned in this new David-and-Goliath struggle against Russia at sea.
Moreover, according to the recently published Strategy of Naval Forces, which was drawn up with assistance of Western advisors, Ukraine’s navy will not be able to serious challenge Russia in the Black Sea for another 15 years, by 2035.
The hope is, however, that Ukraine will by then have turned its ramshackle fleet into a technologically advanced and swift force capable not only of meeting the Russian threat in the Black Sea, but able to protect Ukraine’s interests, first in the region, and then around the world.
Gloomy prospects
The strategy starts with an honest assessment of the grim state of Ukraine’s navy, which currently consists of a handful of Soviet-era warships.
As the navy’s top commander, Admiral Ihor Vorochenko notes in his foreword, as a result of Russia’s invasion of Crimea, Ukraine’s fleet lost 75 percent of its personnel, 70 percent of its warships, and most of its key infrastructure, which was mostly concentrated on the now Russian-occupied peninsula.
Occupying Crimea and seeking to dominate the Azov Sea, in addition to opening Russian naval and air bases in Syria, is only part of Moscow’s recent military resurgence.
“Russia continues to militarize, re-equipping its armed forces, increasing the number of its strike missile systems,” the strategy reads.
“A drastic reinforcement of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, along with the creation of strike forces near Ukraine’s border, is expected within the next five years. Russia’s domination in the air and the sea and its ability to impose anti access/area denial zones will continue to increase, unless it is deterred.”
A sailor hoists the Ukrainian flag on the naval ship Ternopil in Sevastopil bay on March 12, 2014. (AFP)
The navy believes Russia will continue its creeping advance against Ukraine, increasing its capabilities to impose sea blockades, strike coastal infrastructure, and make amphibious landings on the Ukrainian coast.
“Russia will keep… exhausting Ukraine’s economy, stonewalling domestic reforms, obstructing access to Western technologies, including military ones, and to weapons, using the support of partners and neighboring nations to craft a negative image of Ukraine,” the document reads. “A continuing campaign (by Russia to blur) maritime borderlines and… manipulate the intentional legal status of the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait is expected.”
Ukraine’s coastal region is a tempting target for invasion by Russia, according to the strategy. It has 13 seaports, seven large shipyards, nine factories producing machinery and equipment for ships, and 15 maritime research institutes and design bureaus. The region also boasts estimated deposits of 1.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 409.8 million tons of crude oil, which is nearly 30 percent of Ukraine’s overall hydrocarbon wealth.
Meanwhile, the threat of an all-out Russian invasion is growing exponentially, the strategy reads.
Future warfare
In the face of the Russian threat, the navy proposes to develop into a force strong enough to impose unacceptably high costs on an attacking Russian fleet, even though the latter will always be a superior force.
“This will demand a new mindset, a certain amount of time, and a significant amount of resources,” the strategy’s authors say.
To achieve its goals, Ukraine’s navy will invest in high-tech solutions. The future of warfare at sea will be dominated by automated unmanned weapons systems able to engage targets in the air, on the surface, and underwater, the strategy reads.
“The speeds of vessels and air vehicles will increase, (and) a modular principle for their construction will develop, which will make them more functional and effective,” the document reads.
“Hypersonic cruise missiles will emerge, along with new laser, electromagnetic weapons.”
The new advanced technologies will also greatly simplify logistical support for maritime missions in remote areas of the globe, where Ukraine is currently not capable of supporting its vessels.
Two C-300 missiles flare up in the sky during live fire tests at a Ukrainian military firing range in the Kherson Oblast on Nov. 7, 2018. (Ukraine's Ministry of Defense)
Gradual evolution
Ukraine’s naval command plans to build a brand new modern fleet from scratch in three stages.
In the first period, which would last through 2025, the top priority would be to ensure effective surface surveillance in the Black and the Azov seas, and to install effective defenses all along the country’s coast by deploying seacoast artillery and laying mines in the most vulnerable zones. The aim is to deny the enemy access to vulnerable areas and prevent enemy actions close to the coast.
Over the next few years, the navy also wants to start ensuring complete control of Ukraine’s 12-mile territorial water zone, and to be able to take actions within the sea area up to 40 nautical miles from the coast.
Given Ukraine’s limited resources, the military recommended allocating just $70-90 million a year to this program.
The second period, lasting from 2025 to 2030 will see Ukraine expand its ability to operate up to 200 nautical miles from its shores, namely within its exclusive maritime zone.
The navy’s surveillance capabilities will have to stretch from the air to the sea bottom, and naval spending will have to increase to $100-250 million a year. At this point, Ukrainian tactical boat groups should be fully operational, and high-precision long-range anti-ship missile systems must be deployed to deter enemy amphibious landing boats, destroyers, and supply vessels.
Moreover, by this time, Ukraine’s navy must have a so-called “mosquito fleet” – an advanced force of small but highly mobile missile craft able to operate in close coordination in order to potentially defeat larger but less maneuverable warships.
“This is the most realistic decision in terms balancing efficiency and spending,” the strategy says.
“Thanks to their speed, mobility, and weaponry, such boats are capable of fulfilling nearly all tasks typical of classical warships, although they have lower seaworthiness and action ranges… In addition to innovative tactics and well-trained crews, the mosquito fleet boats will be able to defeat superior forces in naval action.”
A force of corvettes is to form the backbone of the regular Ukrainian fleet. As Chief of Naval Staff Vice Admiral Andriy Tarasov told the Kyiv Post in an interview in late December, Ukraine needs at least four modern corvettes to defend its waters.
The third and final stage, ending by 2035, will see the Ukrainian navy capable of operating around the globe.
The new Ukrainian fleet will be able to operate independently of its national logistics supply system. The coast will be defended by a powerful arsenal of cruise missiles able to strike attacking enemy warships and aircraft.
The country’s marine units and naval air forces are also expected to be brought up to full capacity.
This final stage of rearmament, however, will bring spending on the navy to nearly $400 million a year.
A cat walks on the quai next to the frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy (U130), flagship of Ukrainian Navy in southern Ukrainian city Odesa on May 3, 2015. (AFP)
Plan off target?
The strategy has received mixed feedback from the expert community.
“This is a credible roadmap,” said Taras Chmut, a retired marine and chief editor of the Ukrainian Military Portal news website.
“(But) it is too slow, and too protracted. It envisages gaining considerable military power at sea over the next 10 years, while we need to organize effective defenses right now. Furthermore, it concentrates too much on coastal facilities at the expense of launching a fleet of full-fledged warships of various classes.”
“In other words, this (strategy) in the end leads us to a passive, stonewall defense on the shores, rather than making (Ukraine) a fully active maritime power. As you flip through its pages, you can see it crystal clear that it presents the sea as a threat in itself, while it is (actually) a pathway for projecting military power.”
This is because of a lack of understanding of the current challenges at sea in the General Staff, which is dominated by land army generals, Chmut added.
The Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament, a Kyiv-based defense think tank, also disagreed with the priorities set in the strategy, while saying it sent “a definitely positive signal for Ukraine’s naval development.”
“Deploying anti-ship missiles is given as a third-level priority, and is expected only in 2025-2030,” the think tank said in comments on the strategy posted on its Facebook page on Jan. 14.
“(We) believe that vessel-mounted platforms carrying anti-ship missiles must be a top priority for Ukraine’s navy. Only contingents of missile craft can alter the balance in the Black Sea and compel Russia to respect Ukrainian interests.
Otherwise, by 2025 Russia will achieve total supremacy, not only in the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea, but also in the northern Black Sea, by blocking Ukrainian ports and challenging its access to sea.”
