Denys Shmygal is currently Ukraine’s deputy prime minister. But if an emergency session of parliament on March 4 goes as planned, he will soon receive a major promotion.
Shmygal may become prime minister, one of several appointments set to shake up the current Cabinet of Ministers and potentially alter the course of Ukrainian governance under President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Shmygal was just one of several candidates for top jobs revealed to the Kyiv Post by sources in and close to the government, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Ihor Umansky, who held multiple posts under three presidents, is the only candidate to become Ukraine’s next finance minister, according to a member of the current government. Deputy Prime Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who is in charge of integration with Europe, is expected to take the helm of the foreign ministry.
At least four ministers are expected to lose their jobs. Most prominent among them is Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk, who has been in the hot seat since mid-January, when tapes of him and other Cabinet members discussing the president in unflattering terms were leaked online.
Honcharuk, the youngest person to lead a government in Ukraine’s history, faced criticism both from the president and parliament for his slow delivery of promised reforms.
He was appointed on Aug. 29, but his Cabinet’s disapproval ratings are already well over 50%, according to the latest polls. However, under Ukrainian law, he cannot be fired for a year after taking office — unless he resigns willingly.
On March 2, Honcharuk held a press conference where he said he hadn’t filed a letter of resignation. However, according to one of the current ministers, Honcharuk is expected to resign.
Race for prime minister
Both Zelensky and Honcharuk have refused to comment on the reportedly impending changes to the Cabinet. Meanwhile, lawmakers and even ministers have refused to be identified when commenting on the news.
A Ukrainian pro-government lawmaker close to the president told the Kyiv Post that Shmygal is expected to become prime minister on March 4.
Shmygal, a professional accountant, rose to prominence by working for energy company DTEK, owned by oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. He also briefly headed the economic department of his native Lviv Oblast in 2009–2011. In June 2019, he was appointed governor of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. He was dismissed in February and appointed deputy prime minister and minister of regional development.
Shmygal’s name began circulating in Ukrainian media after the alleged favorite for the job, Serhiy Tigipko, was reportedly dropped as a candidate.
Tigipko, a banker and veteran politician, founded two banks, worked in four governments and even led the National Bank of Ukraine in 2002–2004. He also came third in the 2010 presidential elections, with over 13% of the vote.
However, his work as minister of social policy and deputy prime minister under ousted President Viktor Yanukovych may cost him a potential job under Zelensky. As a former member of the Yanukovych-era government, Tigipko is subject to the 2014 lustration law and is prohibited from holding high-level government jobs.
However, on March 3, the Constitutional Court was set to rule on whether the lustration law violates the constitution, yet postponed its decision until further notice.
On Feb. 24, the European Court of Human Rights upheld its earlier decision that the lustration law violates dismissed officials’ rights, rejecting Ukraine’s appeal.
New faces
Even if the prime minister stays, the 450-seat parliament, controlled by the 247-member pro-presidential Servant of the People faction, is expected to reshuffle the government after relations between the legislature and the executive branch deteriorated over the last several months.
Among those who are reported to be receiving new posts are Umansky and Kuleba.
Umansky has been a career government official since 1998. He worked in both the economy and finance ministries, and his peak career achievement was serving as the acting minister of finance in 2009–2010 under President Viktor Yushchenko.
A year prior, he was appointed first deputy finance minister. In 2014, under President Petro Poroshenko, he was once again appointed first deputy finance minister. He served under then-Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko, who now leads the Federal Fiscal Control Board of Puerto Rico.
Umansky is expected to replace Oksana Markarova, who has served as minister since 2018. Markarova is one of the two ministers appointed by ex-President Petro Poroshenko who kept their jobs under his successor, Zelensky.
On March 4, the Kyiv Post received a document reportedly given out to lawmakers that laid out the main criticisms of the ministers.
Lawmaker Mykyta Poturaev, the deputy head of the parliament’s information committee, told the Kyiv Post that he wrote it. He is known for controlling Servant of the People’s information policy.
While the document praises the government’s achievements in lowering inflation and interest rates, it states that lawmakers should be unhappy with falling industrial output, a decline in exports due to the national currency’s persistent appreciation and low budget revenues.
These documents appear to provide justification to remove Markarova from office.
Read More: Leaked memo from Presidential Office outlines targets for Cabinet shuffle
The Kyiv Post also received information from sources connected to the government that Kuleba is set to become Ukraine’s foreign minister. Kuleba is a career diplomat and has been Ukraine’s permanent representative to the Council of Europe since 2016. On Aug. 29, he was appointed deputy prime minister in charge of synchronizing Ukraine’s government policies with those of the European Union.
Kuleba is expected to succeed Vadym Prystaiko, who has poor relations with Andriy Yermak, the president’s chief of staff.
Since his appointment as Zelensky’s aide in May, Yermak has led backchannel negotiations with Russian, American and European diplomats that overshadowed the work of the foreign ministry.
Yermak helped negotiate two prisoner swaps, one with Russia in September and another with Russia’s proxies in eastern Ukraine in December. He was also the link between Zelensky and Rudolph Giuliani, U.S. President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, whose quest for political dirt on former Vice President Joseph Biden led to Trump’s impeachment trial.
Worrying reshuffle
Regardless of what ultimately happens on March 4, the emergency parliamentary session already has some Ukrainian reformers worried.
This week will determine whether Ukraine continues on its pro-Western path or “turns into the hands of the Kremlin,” Daria Kaleniuk, executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, wrote on Twitter.
She suggested that some of the changes that might be made — including the sacking of Prime Minister Honcharuk — could benefit oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky.
A former business partner of Zelensky, Kolomoisky is currently fighting in court to regain control of PrivatBank, which he formerly co-owned. It was nationalized in 2016 after a $5.5-billion hole was discovered in its ledgers. He is accused of embezzling the money, which he denies.
Kaleniuk credited Honcharuk for a draft law that would make it illegal to return PrivatBank to its former owners.
