The victory of Emmanuel Macron in France’s May 7 presidential election is widely being seen as a positive outcome for Ukraine, with the 39-year-old expected to continue to support punishing Russia for its war in Ukraine’s Donbas region.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has led the praise, calling Macron’s campaign “brilliant” and saying that in the Normandy format talks with Germany and Russia over the conflict in the Donbas Ukraine has gained “a reliable ally.”
Macron stated a number of times while on the campaign trail that sanctions on Russia would not be lifted until it fulfills its obligations under the Minsk Peace deal. Ahead of the second round of voting in the election, in which the former banker faced off against nationalist Marine Le Pen, he said that unlike his opponent he would not submit to the “diktats” of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Le Pen, meanwhile, has on the question of Russia adopted positions opposed to the majority of the international community. In an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour earlier this year, she denied that Russia had invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and called sanctions on Russia “completely stupid.” Last month she visited Moscow for a meeting with Putin during which he said his country was not seeking to influence the French presidential vote “in any way.”
Hanna Hopko, a Ukrainian member of parliament and the head the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs, says that given such statements from Le Pen, the continuity likely to come from Macron in relation to France’s policy on Russia is greatly welcomed, especially with French and German parliamentary elections due to take place in the coming months.
“This is a transition period,” she told the Kyiv Post. “We have elections in France, then in Germany. The new administration in the United States is still finalizing its position on Russia. We are living in a time of great uncertainty.”
Hopko believes that while elections elsewhere in Europe are still taking place, Ukraine must take steps to address its internal problems.
“It’s important for us not to waste this time,” she said. “We need to focus on things like making the Ukrainian army stronger, introducing parliamentary and civilian oversight in defense and security and on making our economy stronger and attracting more investors.”
Tensions between Macron and the Kremlin were ratcheted up in recent days when his campaign headquarters said a massive leak of its e-mails and documents just before polls opened was likely the work of Russian hackers. That came after it accused state-backed Russian media outlets RT TV and Sputnik of spreading fake news.
Moscow has rejected allegations of interference but observers believe the incidents are likely to play a role in future talks involving France and Russia, including any held in the Normandy format over the war in Ukraine.
“The alleged Russian intervention in the French election likely makes for a potentially difficult relationship between Russia and France,” said Timothy Ash, an analyst at Bluebay Asset Management.
“In any event I think we will see Moscow trying to push the US to take a more active role, likely moving away from the Normandy process.”
