Ukrainian navy chief: If Russia attacks again, we are ready - Dec. 24, 2018

ODESA, Ukraine — Russia’s attack on Ukrainian vessels in the international waters of the Black Sea, near the Kerch Strait, on Nov. 25 seemed to further demonstrate that Moscow wants the Azov Sea as its own, landlocked lake — and the Kremlin is ready to do whatever it takes to strangle Ukraine’s weak hold on the region.

But despite losing three vessels and suffering the imprisonment of 24 sailors, still held captive in Moscow, the Ukrainian navy says it’s not backing down.

Instead, Ukrainian warships will continue to exercise their legal right to pass the Kerch Strait, and even in the face of overwhelming odds, they’re ready to do battle if Russians attack them once again, according to the chief of naval staff Vice Admiral Andriy Tarasov.

In a Dec. 22 interview with Kyiv Post, the senior naval commander asserted that a new maritime mission would be launched and Ukraine needs to continue exercising its lawful right to freedom of navigation in waters that he says are being illegally monopolized by Russia.

“There’s a war going on, initiated by Russia,” Tarasov said. “And this war is raging at the sea too, since 2014. Whether we want and don’t want to lay low at bases and offices, we have to fulfill our duties regarding the protection of our sovereign interests.”

“And the sovereign interests of Ukraine apply to the Kerch Strait as well,” he said, of the narrow passage of water that connects the Black and Azov seas, now blockaded by Russia’s illegally-constructed Kerch bridge.

Earlier, on Dec. 19, the chairman of Ukraine’s Defense and Security Council, Oleksandr Turchynov, told the BBC’s Ukrainian language service that a new attempt to pass the disputed channel between mainland Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea was being prepared.

Vice Admiral Tarasov, for his part, declined to reveal planned dates of the mission, but assured that the Ukrainian navy had learned from the bitter experience of its previously failed voyage and noted that he now expects success.

He noted that the deployment of NATO maritime force in the region was highly desirable during the next attempt to enter the Azov.

“The presence of our partners in the Black Sea is a deterring and stabilizing factor,” Tarasov said. “For instance, their nearby presence during our passage through the strait, just in the capacity of an observing party, would not allow Russians to repeat what they did on Nov. 25.”

It is also potentially possible that media could be taken aboard the Ukrainian vessels cruising into the strait, to ensure absolute transparency and publicity of the mission, he added.

Tarasov also said that the Ukrainian naval forces would always be sticking to international maritime law and to provisions of the 2003 treaty with Russia on the shared use of the Azov Sea and freedom of navigation in the Kerch Strait.

Last time, on Nov. 25, two Ukrainian gunboats and a tug were badly damaged and captured when Russian eventually opened fire after a 10-hour chase in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian warships were in no position to fight overwhelming enemy forces, according to Tarasov.

For Ukrainian captains, declining to return fire on the Russians, was “the only right decision” that helped avoid escalating a greater conflict initiated by Russia, the commander said.

Next time, however, the Ukrainian vessels could have orders to return fire.

“As I said, we act in full compliance with the law,” Tarasov said. “If we face an act of aggression, we will be ready to have different rules, particularly regarding the use of weapons — if we are forced to do so, and if we are fully entitled by international and Ukrainian law.”

Ukrainian navy sea tug Korets (front) and command ship Donbas (rear) are seen moored at the Port of Mariupol on the Azov Sea, eastern Ukraine on Dec. 2, 2018. (AFP)

Impending menace

The Nov. 25 incident on the Black Sea has plunged Ukrainian defense into new territory, where it feels especially vulnerable.

On this new front in Russia’s war, the nation’s naval forces, depleted by up to 80 percent after Russia seized Crimea and its ports in 2014, are preparing to take a stand against the vast power of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and its newly created Azov Flotilla of over 120 various vessels.

Moreover, the Kremlin is investing heavily into its maritime buildup.

According to Tarasov, since 2014, they particularly doubled the overall power of their coast guard forces in the Black and Azov seas, having almost completely modernized their vessel line-up.

It’s now estimated that the Russian coast guard, part of the country’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, has enough ships to totally isolate Ukraine’s coastline should they want to, according to the Ukrainian vice admiral.

And the Russians have greatly boosted their strike forces in the occupied territory of Ukrainian Crimea and on the Taman Peninsula. They have started operating advanced Bal and Bastion coastal defense systems, along with a number of Talwar-class frigates, new Buyan-class missile craft, and patrol boats armed with anti-ship missiles.

In general, Tarasov said, the Black Sea Fleet’s complement has increased by some 40 percent through the last 5 years.

What poses an even bigger threat is the significant buildup of Russian air power in the mentioned regions, Tarasov added.

In particular, Russia just deployed, on Dec. 22, at least 10 additional Sukhoi Su-30 and Sukhoi Su-27 warplanes to their main military base in the occupied Crimean city of Sevastopol.

A fleet from scratch

For Ukraine, with its very limited financial and production capacity, acquiring naval muscle that’s able to square off with Russian at sea, is a huge challenge.

The naval staff, however, has got a plan for this.

According to a white paper presented recently, the Ukrainian navy would be resurrected in the coming years through to 2035, in stages.

Firstly, as a force of small gunboats for coastal defense, and then as a ‘mosquito fleet’ centered around a number of missile boats ensuring Ukraine’s interests in a 200-mile economic zone.

“The core of a small craft fleet, or a ‘mosquito fleet’, is, above all, missile boats bearing strike missile weaponry,” Tarasov said.

“Because such ordnance is the most effective deterrence value in maritime warfare. That’s why we are hardwired to develop this section. In this aspect, we must particularly ensure the deterrence of Russia’s activities and prevent it from free navigation in our economic water. They will always be facing a threat of the use of force upon them in case of violations.”

However, that is not enough for Ukraine; therefore, Tarasov said, the third and the final stage envisages launching a number of corvettes that would act in symbiosis with the craft of other types.

“In one respect, missile boats must ensure a fleet’s strike potential,” the commander said.

“And they are a swift force that can perform rapid advances But on the flip side, there must be a corvette ensuring effective control, surveillance, radio-electric warfare activities. The whole fleet must act as a united system.”

In general, the navy’s development envisages operating a total of 4 corvettes, at least 3 missile craft, and also at least 3 mine-sweeping ships.

The fleet’s flagship — the 3100-ton frigate Hetman Sahaidachniy — will also be deeply modernized in next 2-3 years to carry advanced, Ukrainian-produced, Neptun anti-ship missiles that are currently undergoing a series of live fire tests.

Besides, a good choice for the future Ukrainian navy is to operate a number of midget submarines that, thanks to modern technology, can be an inexpensive and extremely effective in maritime warfare.

“Getting an undersea fleet is a silver bullet for weak navies,” he said.

“If we appeal to history, we find out that those who had no advantage at sea resorted to developing submarines. This enables sustaining operations in the immediate vicinity of an enemy’s bases, which is not available for surface vessels. The range of options available includes surveillance, minelaying, and even targeting warships in certain circumstances.”

Even 3 small submarines lurking in an aquatic area can coerce the enemy to divert up to 40 percent of its whole fleet only to ascertain their presence nearby, Tarasov noted.

Soldiers of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion draw a bead on a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter behind a ZU-23 anti-aircraft mount during seashore maneuvers near Urzuf on Oct. 9, 2018. (Volodymyr Petrov)

Haven in Berdiansk

In September, following months of Russia impeding and harassing commercial shipments in the Azov Sea to the Ukrainian port of Berdiansk and Mariupol, Ukraine’s government finally took the rather late decision to authorize the establishment of a brand new naval base in the region.

The new facility would be located in Berdiansk, and, according to defense minister Stepan Poltorak, its construction will be of top priority in 2019.

Over the past few months amid the crisis in the Azov Sea, a number of small craft, including two newly-produced Gurza-M gunboats, were redeployed there to increase Ukraine’s dwindling defenses.

Vice Admiral Tarasov noted that the Berdiansk harbor currently hosts 4 military vessels, but when complete, it will be able to maintain a division of warships. In the most favorable setup, the brand new base would be launched within 5 years, the commander said, but it would be able to host hardware and personnel as soon as early 2020.

The urgent Ukrainian buildup in the Azov, though led by small craft, already helps deter Russia’s aggressive actions in the region.

“Even now we see that Russians have stopped harassing vessels in the immediate maritime area of the Azov Sea since the passage is convoyed by our two gunboats,” Tarasov said.

“And when (we) have a division of them, things will greatly improve for our commercial shipments.”

U.S. Island-class boats

Another crucial source of the resurrection of Ukraine’s maritime power is foreign military aid, notably from the United States and other NATO allies.

In late September, Ukraine formally accepted, from the U.S., two Island-class patrol boats, provided to Kyiv at no cost.

The deal finally happened after nearly four years of bureaucratic ping-pong within Ukraine’s government. The long-expected vessels are still moored in the U.S. port of Baltimore, and the Ukrainian navy still needs to invest some $10 million to make them operational and transport to their new home port of Odesa.

Vice-Admiral Tarasov said the Island vessels would hopefully join the Ukrainian ranks in 2019.

In November, it also became known that the U.S. had proposed that Ukraine accept a number of their mothballed, 4200-ton Oliver Hazard Perry frigates.

However, according to Tarasov, the Ukrainian party, after considerations, eventually decided to back out of this proposal due to insufficient funds.

“Upon our estimates, it is likely that we cannot afford to maintain a frigate as a battle-ready vessel, as of now,” he said.

“It would demand rather comprehensive modernization works, attachment of appropriate weaponry and equipment, and also support. That implies serious expenses, and given the current economic situation, we can’t do it.”

Operating frigates would become truly possible only in the third and final state of its navy development effort, he also said, adding Ukraine currently needs to concentrate on boosting its strike power with missile boats and coastline missile defense.

Ukrainian soldier patrols aboard patrol boat Dondas moored in Mariupol, Sea of Azov port on Nov. 27, 2018. (AFP)

Bring the sailors home

The Nov. 25 Russian attack in the Kerch Strait has triggered what many observers have called a weak and insufficient response from Ukraine’s so-called allies in the diplomatic sphere. But in the military domain, the response from the West is appearing somewhat stronger.

In early December, the U.S. Navy started preparations to send a warship to the Black Sea and demonstrate its support for Ukraine. And then Great Britain’s HMS Echo anchored in the port of Odesa on Dec. 21-22, becoming the first NATO military vessel to enter the region after the Nov. 25 incident. As of Dec. 24, Echo remains in the Black Sea and is expected to be replaced by another British warship when it needs to leave.

According to Tarasov, the attack has prompted the alliance to send its warships to the Black Sea more frequently in the future. Everyone willing to support Ukraine is welcome at the Ukrainian ports, he added.

Tarasov ended his interview with Kyiv Post with expressions of gratitude towards both Ukrainian and international organizations and officials demanding that Russia release all 24 captured Ukrainian sailors, still held illegally in a Moscow prison.

For him, the vice admiral admitted, their fate was a very painful point.

“I am really thankful to all those supporting our guys so actively.”

“But unfortunately, we understand that their return depends primarily on the position of the Russian leadership. However, I still believe that we will eventually force them to bring our boys home. Today, this is our top-priority mission.”