The Ukrainian government must rapidly impose more quarantine measures to prevent a tragedy. If restrictions are not intensified, 20,000 people will die of COVID-19 by the end of the year, according to modeling by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).
“Gradually all oblasts will move to the red zone,” Pavlo Kovtonyuk, head of the Center for Health Economics at the Kyiv School of Economics, said, using a term referring to the strictest category of quarantine restrictions. “But it won’t stop the disease’s spread.”
A former deputy health minister, Kovtonyuk made these comments on Oct. 22, during an online briefing presenting the KSE research.
In the past month-and-a-half, coronavirus cases and deaths have risen sharply in Ukraine. Experts at KSE say the pandemic is spinning out of control and their research indicates that only swift government action can save lives.
Despite the pandemic’s increased spread, Ukrainians remain complacent about the virus and the government appears hesitant to impose new restrictions as the country heads to the polls to vote in local elections on Oct. 25.
To avoid mass death, the government should “abandon the practice of selective restrictions,” said Kovtonyuk. Restrictions should be implemented automatically, without the consent of local authorities, he added.
Previously, local leaders often opposed quarantine restrictions, and the central government made concessions to them, altering the unpopular measures.
But that is not helping fight COVID-19 and the current quarantine system is not working, according to KSE. Its modeling demonstrates that the current system does not anticipate and prevent outbreaks. Instead, “red” zones are implemented after case numbers spike and hospitals approach capacity, when it’s already too late.
Additionally, Ukrainians are careless about quarantine restrictions. According to KSE’s research, citizens are more afraid of losing their jobs than catching COVID-19.
Ukraine is still in its first wave of the pandemic. If most European countries are currently experiencing the peak of their second wave, Ukraine managed to avoid a peak in spring thanks to a timely lockdown imposed in March.
In its modeling, KSE compared 15 European countries with a population of more than 10 million people. It found that the most critical situations were in the Czech Republic, Belgium, Romania, Poland and Ukraine. Ukraine ranks 4th among the 15 European countries in terms of COVID-19 deaths.
Ukraine is dead last in the detection rate, a holistic measure the takes into account how testing is conducted, whether quarantine restrictions prevent the spread of COVID-19, whether hospitals can accomodate patients and how treatment is conducted. That means that, according to KSE, Ukraine’s health system is handling the pandemic worse than anywhere in Europe.
Additionally, every 5th hospital in Ukraine dedicated to the treatment of COVID-19 is critically filled with patients.
In 54 hospitals, resuscitation beds are 100% full. Among them is the Oleksandrivska Clinical Hospital in Kyiv, which has the largest number of beds to treat COVID-19 patients.
According to KSE, new infections in Kirovohrad Oblast, Luhanska Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Khmelnytsky Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast will most drive the growth of cases in Ukraine in the next two weeks.
