The leaders of Western countries are not moving fast in taking action to respond to Russia’s latest acts of aggression against Ukraine, in the wake of the Nov. 25 attacks on boats belonging to the Ukrainian navy on the Black Sea near the Kerch Strait that connects to the Azov Sea.
The operation on the evening of Nov. 25 by naval elements of Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, backed by Spetsnaz special forces, resulted in three Ukrainian vessels being illegally seized and 24 sailors captured and imprisoned.
In response, the Ukrainian government called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council and later implemented limited martial law across coastal regions of Ukraine, as well as those bordering Russia on land.
Western leaders have faced criticism for what some observers have said was a slow, stumbling response to the developing crisis in Kerch, with tweeted statements of condemnation and concern standing as the only western response for almost two days.
NATO response
All 29 NATO countries have now issued a joint statement – regarded as reasonably robust by some international experts – that reaffirms the alliance’s support for Ukraine and issues a demand for Russia to de-escalate and respect Ukraine’s sovereignty.
“There is no justification for Russia’s use of military force against Ukrainian ships and naval personnel,” read NATO’s joint statement, issued on the evening of Nov. 27.
“We call on Russia to release the Ukrainian sailors and ships it seized, without delay.”
But NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also implied at a Brussels press conference on Nov. 26 that Ukraine probably can’t count on NATO combat support if it comes to all-out war.
“We constantly assess what more we can do because Russia has to understand that its actions have consequences,” Stoltenberg said, without elaboration on specific consequences, in response to a Kyiv Post question in Brussels.
“We have seen this game before,” said Jonathan Allen, the United Kingdom’s ambassador to the United Nations at a Nov. 26 emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council.
“Russia wants to consolidate its illegal annexation of Crimea and annex the Sea of Azov… and seems to hope that the international community will simply acquiesce and accept this new reality. We will not,” the British diplomat said.
More EU sanctions?
While it’s not yet clear if the proposals will gain enough traction and support, several European lawmakers started calling on Nov. 27 and 28 for stronger economic sanctions on Russia in response to what they called “overt” aggression against Ukraine.
Some international analysts, writing for the Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert blog, have suggested that Western countries should move to sanction Russian banks while significantly bolstering their naval presence in the Black Sea.
Poland and Estonia’s leadership have so far been seen to lead the calls for further, stronger sanctions on Russia.
Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Bartosz Cichoki told Reuters on Nov. 27 that Warsaw felt vindicated, after the Kerch Strait crisis, in its calls for a more unified Western position on Russia.
“Russia remains wrongly convinced that the reaction of the West isn’t unified … because in energy matters there is one stance and in defense matters there is another,” he told Reuters, in reference to some EU states such as Germany backing the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, increasing their reliance on Russian energy.
German conservative lawmaker Norbet Roettgen, an ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, also said on Nov. 27 that the European Union could need to step up its sanctions on Russia, imposed in 2014 after Moscow illegally annexed Crimea and launched its war in Eastern Ukraine.
On Nov. 27, Kersti Kaljulaid, president of Estonia, issued probably the strongest statement so far condemning Russia and getting firmly behind Ukraine.
“We must use the right terms: this is a war in Europe,” she said. “The Ukrainian people have been engaged in this war since 2014 and the Crimean peninsula is still under occupation.”
She continued, calling on the international community and democratic world leaders to join her in clearly condemning Russian aggression and “demanding” that it stop.
“Silent acknowledgment means de-facto recognition of the occupation of Crimea,” she added. “War in Europe will not, shall not and cannot ever again be accepted as business as usual.”
US passes the buck to Europe
Heather Nauert, spokeswoman for the U.S. State Department, reaffirmed American “support” for Ukraine on Nov. 27, while also passing the buck to Europe and saying EU leaders needed to do more.
She also drew further attention to Nord Stream 2, the $11 billion pipeline to carry Russian natural gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine, and said the deal should be “reviewed” as it “helps the Russian government.”
U.S. President Donald Trump, facing mounting pressure for a response that some critics called slow and inadequate, said on Nov. 27 that he might cancel a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, tentatively planned to take place on the sidelines at the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires later this week.
Faced with what he says is mounting evidence that Russia could be preparing a full-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine, including what Ukrainian intelligence reports show as a buildup of troops, planes and tanks at the Ukrainian border, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko said he was relying on Trump to deliver a message to Putin, from him, at the G20 summit. The message: “Get out of Ukraine.”
Poroshenko had earlier said that he attempted to speak with Putin by phone, but the Russian leader refused to take his call.
In Buenos Aires later this week, it’s not yet clear what Western leaders will meet with Putin. Trump reflects the Western uncertainty.
The U.S. president told the Washington Post on Nov. 27 that he would wait for a “full report” on the Nov. 25 Kerch Strait incident but he also seemed to condemn the Russian aggression for the first time.
“Maybe I won’t have the meeting (with Putin),” he is quoted as saying. “Maybe I won’t have the meeting. I don’t like that aggression. I don’t want that aggression at all,” he said.
