The fallout from the American withdrawal from Afghanistan has exceeded the darkest expectations.
Just a month after the U.S. announced withdrawal, the Islamist movement Taliban seized the country’s key cities. The capital city Kabul was taken without a fight on Aug. 15, effectively re-establishing the movement’s rule over the embattled Central Asian country.
The radical movement was in control of Afghanistan for five years in 1996-2001, before being overthrown by the U.S. troops in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Twenty years of U.S. and NATO military presence and $2 trillion spent resulted in the Western-backed secular government fleeing Kabul in chaos. The U.S.-trained, 300,000-strong Afghan military and security forces surrendered to the Taliban.
Now, the world prepares to mark the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks with the Islamic Emirate’s white banner flying over Kabul again.
The U.S. withdrawal leaves many questioning the Joe Biden administration’s readiness to support embattled allies — including Ukraine, which has been relying on U.S. defense aid and diplomatic backing to defend itself against the ongoing Russian invasion that killed 14,000 people since 2014.
Does the Afghan debacle mean the U.S. can similarly abandon Ukraine someday?
The question is especially relevant as many experts believe that the late Afghan government’s endemic corruption and ineffectiveness are to blame for the country’s fall to the Taliban.
Taliban fighters stand guard along a roadside near the Zanbaq Square in Kabul on Aug. 16, 2021, as the Taliban were in control of Afghanistan after President Ashraf Ghani fled the country and conceded the insurgents had won the 20-year war. (AFP)
Downfall
The first days of the Taliban’s new reign paint a tragic picture.
The Western governments are sending troops to urgently evacuate their diplomatic missions from Kabul. Thousands of Afghans, who used to cooperate with U.S. forces, rushed to the capital in hope of being evacuated as well.
However, according to the latest reports, with all principal roads and Kabul itself falling to the Taliban, these people are very likely to be left behind at the Jihadists’ mercy.
The scenes of mayhem are appalling.
Hundreds of Afghans stormed the Kabul airport, trying to cling to a U.S. Air Force aircraft taking off on Aug. 16, in a desperate attempt to leave.
At least one person was seen falling from the plane to his death. Seven were reportedly killed in the mayhem at the airport.
“This is not as much the Kabul downfall as this horrific scene of panic and despair at the Kabul airport that will turn a severe reputation loss of the U.S. and specifically President Joe Biden,” said Iliya Kusa, an international relations expert with Ukrainian Institute for the Future, a Kyiv-based think tank.
“The Afghan capital’s seizure by convoys of militants with their guns at trail, driving dirty riddled pickups, with giant white flags against the backdrop of ‘Welcome to Kabul’ signs — is quite a sight to see. It brings back unpleasant memories from 20 years ago, especially when it comes to war veterans.”
The Taliban seized the power in Afghanistan in 1996, after decades of multisided civil war and Soviet military intervention. The movement imposed strict Islamic law over most of the country and is now considered a terrorist organization by the United Nations and many nations.
Following the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the U.S. accused the Taliban of harboring Osama bin Laden, who was believed the chief mastermind behind the plot and invaded the Central Asian country, ousting the movement.
Nonetheless, the Taliban never gave up on its anti-Western guerrilla beyond large cities. This led to what was called “America’s longest war,” which resulted in over 200,000 fatalities on all sides.
Ukraine has had a 21-strong military contingent in Afghanistan with a non-combat minesweeping mission. But in early June, along with other national forces, the detachment was withdrawn.
The Biden administration’s declaration of full U.S. withdrawal by Aug. 31 triggered an all-out Taliban offensive. In fact, according to international media, during the most active phase, the movement took over the country and smashed the national military within 10 days.
But as recently as July 8, Biden asserted the Taliban overrunning the country was “highly unlikely.”
Mustafa Nayyem, a former Ukrainian lawmaker, journalist, and current government official of Pashtun origin, strongly criticized the U.S. policy in Afghanistan.
“I do not support what is now happening to my first homeland,” Nayyem said on Aug. 15.
“It hurts to know that the places I grew up in, the cities my mom was born and buried in, are in flames again, and are unlikely to get back to a peaceful life soon. This time — by the U.S. fault or due to its actions. Afghanistan is a planetary tragedy that is just unfolding.”
In this file photo taken on Oct. 13, 2012, US Army soldiers attached to 2nd platoon, C troop, 1st Squadron (Airborne), 91st U.S Cavalry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team operating under NATO-sponsored International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) protect a wounded comrade from dust and smoke flares after an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast during a patrol near Baraki Barak base in Logar Province. (AFP)
Ukrainian effort
Starting from Aug. 16, all commercial flights were canceled in Kabul. The U.S. military halted all operations in a bid to expel the crowds at the airport.
Germany alone has to evacuate a total of nearly 10,000 Afghans, according to the country’s Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, the hope of that is dwindling as more nations curtail their air communications with Afghanistan.
By Aug. 16 morning, Ukraine in its turn managed to rescue 79 individuals from the country. According to Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, an emergency flight included eight Ukrainians. Others included citizens of Afghanistan, Belarus, The Netherlands, Croatia, and Tajikistan, including small children.
“Some will have to start a new life from scratch,” the minister said on Aug. 16. “The Kabul airport is now a place one should not be at. And at the same time, it is a place of the last hope to thousands of people.”
According to the government, at least 50 Ukrainians are still in Afghanistan.
“Most persons are working under commercial contracts or are Ukrainian nationals of Afghan origins,” said ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko on Aug. 16. “Almost all of them were contacted, diplomats are confirming who among them want to be evacuated.”
Also, nine Afghans arrived in Boryspil who had nowhere else to go. So, according to Andriy Demchenko, the spokesman with Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, they all requested refugee status in Ukraine.
In this photo taken on April 7, 2019, schoolgirls walk past a barrier wall painted with an image of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the late military and political Afghan leader also known as the “Lion of Panjshir,” in Kabul. (AFP)
No silver bullet
As Ukrainian experts say, despite massive financial inflows, what the U.S. managed to build in Afghanistan was nothing but an extremely expensive house of cards, which collapsed immediately after Americans left.
According to official estimates, the U.S. government has spent $88 billion since 2001 on the Afghani security and military forces alone. Their resilience alone in the field turned out to be deplorable.
In many ways, this happened because the Taliban managed to win the general population’s sympathy over weak and corrupt central Western-backed authority, which did little to make life better, especially when it comes to the hinterlands.
In Ukrainian media, many compared the Afghan downfall with what might await Ukraine in a similar doomsday case.
Since 2014, Kyiv has received close to $4.6 billion as U.S. assistance alone, including nearly $2.5 billion in defense and national security. Up to this day, Ukraine relies heavily on foreign aid.
In reality, the cases of Ukraine and Afghanistan have almost nothing in common. Yet Kyiv should learn an important lesson now: Foreign assistance is not a universal silver bullet in national defense.
“External support is a good thing, it can help run some projects, but it does not guarantee success,” says Iliya Kusa. “Afghans had 20 years of strong Western support, but they failed to make use of it and did not do many things they should have.”
Afghanistan since 2012 enjoyed the status of a major U.S. non-NATO ally, the goal that Ukraine also pursues passionately. Yet, it did not save Kabul when the time came.
“Ukraine must also understand that as we put the stake on Washington D.C., we need to remember that it has its own interests and priorities,” Kusa says. “And if they change — it is quite possible that we might face the same fate. So we should work over our own capabilities and rely on them primarily.”
So now Kyiv should be doing its best to prove that it is not going to repeat the late Afghan government’s mistakes, added Glen Grant, the retired British Army officer.
“The coming months will be vital for Ukraine to show that it is both a good ally and that it is not going to cave in if Russia attacks,” Grant says. “The current Ukrainian leadership policies of passive resistance may well be undermining the case for enhanced support. Of course, Ukraine must rely upon itself. No one helps a loser.”
Afghan people sit along the tarmac as they wait to leave the Kabul airport on Aug. 16, 2021, after a stunningly swift end to Afghanistan’s 20-year war, as thousands of people mobbed the city’s airport trying to flee the group’s feared hardline brand of Islamist rule. (AFP)
