Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is heading to the French capital of Paris to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for the first time on Dec. 9.
The two presidents will be joined by the German and French leaders for the first Normandy summit in more than three years.
Expectations are high for a long-awaited reboot of the long-stalled Minsk agreements, intended to end Russia’s war in Donbas, a conflict that has killed 14,000 people in five years.
Moscow has backed militant forces and its proxy authorities in the eastern oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014, around the same time that its military invaded and illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula.
Zelensky and Putin may have a one-on-one meeting at the summit in Paris.
And as if negotiations with Putin — a far more experienced politician than Zelensky, a former comedian and television producer — were not challenging enough, the Ukrainian president faces growing pressure at home and weakening support from some ally states mired in domestic political infighting and soul-searching over the future of alliances.
Despite reiterations of U.S. support for Ukraine, President Donald Trump has repeatedly brought the strength of the two countries’ relations into doubt.
Trump’s actions have raised concerns about whether Kyiv can rely on his country’s support in the upcoming talks. This year, Trump temporarily withheld military aid to Ukraine, repeatedly called it corrupt and allegedly extorted Zelensky to investigate his Democratic Party rivals — efforts that are now at the center of the ongoing impeachment inquiry in the U. S. House of Representatives.
But even before Trump’s questionable approach to Ukraine became clear, he alarmed many by repeatedly showing warmth toward Putin. He has also criticized the North Atlantic military and political alliance, NATO.
There are also causes for concern about the French and German governments, and over the unity of the 29-member NATO alliance.
The U. S. shows signs of “turning its back on us,” said French President Emmanuel Macron in a widely debated Nov. 7 interview with the Economist that saw Macron also express worrying opinions.
He went on to lament the “brain death” within NATO and urged for more military autonomy for the European Union to confront what he said was the world’s preeminent threat: Islamic terrorism.
Macron also said that Russia is no longer an enemy, and has supported the reopening of strategic dialogue with it.
The Kremlin has welcomed Macron’s remarks, which add another entry to the list of its small victories in the EU after the Russian delegation was unconditionally readmitted to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in June.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has disagreed with Macron. But Germany itself has to address the concerns of opponents to its controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project with Russia, particularly the Baltic States, Ukraine, the U.K. and the U.S.
The construction of Nord Stream 2 is nearing completion. It would double the delivery of Russian gas to Europe to 110 billion cubic meters a year, bypassing Ukrainian transit networks that Russia previously used and depriving Ukraine of $3 billion in transit fees.
But Germany says the pipeline won’t be put into operation until Russia agrees to continue some transit through Ukraine.
In light of the 2009 Russian-Ukrainian gas contract’s expiration at the end of December, Kyiv and Moscow have not ruled out the possibility of discussing an extension of the transit agreement at the Normandy summit on Dec. 9 in Paris.
The two countries are also in talks over resuming gas supplies — a move reported by the Kremlin but unlikely to be officially announced by Zelensky’s administration until any agreement is reached for a fear of a public backlash.
Ukraine stopped buying gas directly from Russia in 2015. De facto, it continues to purchase Russian hydrocarbons, albeit at a higher price from European resellers.
State-owned Ukrainian oil and gas producer Naftogaz announced recently that it was ready to accept gas supplies worth $3 billion, the equivalent of the money it is owed by Russia’s gas monopoly Gazprom per a Stockholm court ruling.
At home, Zelensky faces criticism for going into direct talks with Putin. Critics have expressed concern that the inexperienced Zelensky may make concessions to Russia.
Three opposition parties have signed a list of red lines that Zelensky cannot cross, and a massive demonstration organized under the slogan “No to Capitulation” is scheduled in front of the presidential administration in Kyiv on Dec. 8-9 during the talks in Paris.
Earlier in October, a nationwide wave of protests erupted against Zelensky’s decision to pull back Ukrainian troops from three flashpoints on the Donbas frontline and his agreement to the so-called Steinmeier Formula — a peace plan that envisions holding elections in the Russian-occupied parts of Donbas under Ukrainian law before granting self-governing status to the region.
Critics of the plan have claimed that the elections may legitimize the Kremlin proxies that now have control over the occupied area and allow for the region’s soft annexation by Russia.
But the elections are still a long way off and, before they can happen, Zelensky said in his last interview to European media outlets, he wants another prisoner exchange, a ceasefire, a complete pullback of troops and disarmament in the occupied territories.
Moreover, the president disagrees with one of the points in the existing agreements that stipulates that the Ukrainian government will regain control over its eastern border with Russia after the elections.
Zelensky views the talks with Putin as inevitable and crucial for advancing peace efforts in Donbas.
“It is possible to do without a dialogue with Putin but it is like running on a treadmill. You are moving and losing calories but you remain on the same spot,” Zelensky said in his latest video address to his nation, filmed at the gym.
While the talks may take any turn, it appears that the summit is unlikely to bring major breakthroughs.
Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said that the document that will be signed by the Normandy summit leaders won’t contain any principal decisions and amendments to the Minsk agreements.
Instead, it will put the achievements so far on paper and pledge to continue and speed up the process of defining new areas for troop withdrawals, preparations for a new prisoner exchange and designating areas for demining.
As Zelensky is preparing for the hardest talks in his six months in office so far, he wants to know his nation believes in his good intentions to end the war in Donbas and put Ukraine’s interests above all.
“You put your trust in me,” said Zelensky, who was given unprecedented power after winning both the presidential and parliamentary elections in a landslide this summer.
“There will be no betrayal. I will feel more confident at the meeting knowing that my nation trusts me.”
