Over eight weeks, Germany has held three regional elections that have changed the balance of power in Europe’s most important economic center.
At first glance, the results may not be favorable for Ukraine – Kremlin-friendly parties are positioned to increase their power, a development with potential to shake up government on the national level. But it is also too early to expect the worst.
In September and October, three out of 16 German states elected regional parliaments. All three are located in the east of the country and were part of the Soviet-controlled German Democratic Republic until 1989.
Brandenburg and Saxony went to the polls on Sept. 1 and Thuringia voted on Oct. 27. In a climate of growing political polarization, more voters have cast ballots than five years ago. And while higher turnout has previously been advantageous to established political parties, this time was different.
In all three states, the parties currently in power on the national level, the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, lost support while the far-right Alternative for Germany party and the far-left Die Linke party could both add to their seats in the state legislatures.
As a growing political force in Germany, the racist Alternative for Germany can be seen as a threat to Ukraine. The party has refused to support sanctions against Russia from the beginning, and it has close ties to the Kremlin, repeatedly sending delegations to the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula.
Four of the party’s lawmakers are banned from entering Ukraine because they served as “election observers” during unrecognized votes in the Russian-occupied Donbas. One of them is Olaf Kiessling from Thuringia, who was re-elected to the regional parliament on Sunday.
The party Die Linke (“The Left” in German) formed via a union of former communists in the east of Germany and disappointed former Social Democrats in the west in 2008. They have a contradictory position vis-a-vis Russia. On the one hand, they are critical of Russia‘s human rights record and oppose the Kremlin’s authoritarian rule, but on the other, Die Linke has traditionally expressed anti-American sentiments and supports critics of the United States, including at times Russia.
In Thuringia, Die Linke and Alternative for Germany garnered 31% and 23.4% of the vote respectively, making for a deeply divided legislature with no clear majority. Parties in the political center failed to strengthen their representation.
The former coalition led by Die Linke, the Social Democrats and the Green Party lost its majority thanks to weaks result from the Social Democrats. The newly elected faction of the liberal Free Democratic Party has already refused to join the leftist coalition.
The chairman of the Christian Democrats in Thuringia, Mike Mohring, at least wants to talk with Thuringia Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow, the leader of Die Linke, about prospects of forming a coalition to govern the state. However Mohring’s party refuses to join the government, and instead, some Christian Democrats are discussing cooperation with Alternative for Germany, even if their factions combined do not have a majority in the parliament.
So far, it looks like a stalemate. According to the constitution of Thuringia, if the parliment fails to form a new government the old one will stay in power.
Saxony and Brandenburg
In Saxony and Brandenburg, where elections were held in September, Alternative for Germany also achieved the largest increase in power. The party received 27.5% of the vote in Saxony and 23.5% in Brandenburg, making it the second strongest party in both states.
In Saxony, the former coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats lost its majority in parliament, and in Brandenburg, the same fate befell the coalition of Social Democrats and Die Linke. In both states, coalitions of at least three factions are necessary to keep the far-right out of government.
In Saxony, negotiations between Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and the Green Party are under way. In Brandenburg, coalition negotiations are already complete: Social Democrats, Christian Democrats and the Green Party reached an agreement to form a government last weekend.
According to the German constitution, the states have no influence on the foreign policy of Germany. But, in reality, the balance of power on the regional level plays an important role in policies on the national level, including in foreign affairs.
As the regional elections weakened the position of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s national government of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, Merkel will have to conduct important foreign policy negotiations — whether about Brexit or a possible meeting in the Normandy Format on Russia’s war in Ukraine — with a lack of domestic support.
The results even call the cohesion of the coalition into question because they confirm that it isn’t just Social Democrats having an existential crisis – the Christian Democrats are also in decline.
The members of the Social Democrats are currently in the process of electing new party leadership, a decision that should be made by the end of November. If the new leadership is further to the left, the tensions among the ruling government could lead to a break in the coalition and possible snap elections. Germany would be politicly paralyzed for months.
According to the latest nationwide polls, the far-right could benefit and strengthen its position in the Bundestag even though its support on the national level is lower than in the eastern states. To prevent this, Christian Democrats could be tempted to make concessions to right-wing voters.
Real effect?
But for all the concerns about regional governments’ influence on foreign policy, the results did not make the situation worse for Ukraine. It was already bad.
The ruling prime ministers of all five states in the east of Germany have repeatedly called for lifting sanctions on Russia, regardless of their party affiliation. They largely argue the sanctions did not help stop the war in eastern Ukraine and that the sanctions harmed the domestic economy in their states. Saxony’s prime minister, Michael Kretschmer of the Christian Democrats, even met with Vladimir Putin in June.
The silver lining is the Green Party. Even though its results at the ballot box was much weaker than in the west of Germany, the Greens are a rising political power in the east, especially in bigger cities. For the first time since the reunification of Germany, the environmentalist-dominated party could be represented in four of the five regional governments in the east.
The party takes a strong position on human rights and opposes authoritarianism, which fuels its critical stance on the Kremlin. Prominent lawmakers of the Green Party like Rebecca Harms and Marie Luise Beck supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and called for sanctions against Russia.
Ukraine could also benefit from the environmental approach of the Green Party. The party supports renewable energy and opposes new investments in fossil fuel infrastructure. Therefore, they oppose the construction of the Nord Stream II pipeline, which would connect Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea and bypass Ukraine, costing Kyiv billions of dollars in transit fees.
As state administrations are responsible for the permissions for pipelines and refineries, the rise of the Green Party could have real consequences in the energy sector, particularly regarding an old sticking point – Germany‘s dependence on oil imports from Russia.
