US and British defense and intelligence agencies on Thursday, March 24, issued statements confirming declarations by Ukrainian officials earlier in the week that Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) units have kicked off limited offensives in the Kyiv sector, and the attacks are gaining ground.
The British Defense Ministry’s daily intelligence update said the Ukrainian attacks could, moreover, seriously interfere with Russian Federation (RF) plans to regroup in positions close to the Ukrainian capital, and then to try again to capture it.
A Pentagon statement said that UAF attacks to the east of Kyiv have thrown RF forces back as much as 35 kilometers, putting them, at a distance of 55 kilometers from Kyiv’s center, well out artillery range from the city.
At that range very long-range RF weapons like missiles or, less probably, rocket-assisted artillery shells still might hit Kyiv.
The KP on Wednesday spoke with individuals in Brovary and Boryspil, both towns in the vicinity of the offensive reported by the Pentagon. According to these two sources, firing has been very heavy for the last two days, particularly at night.
The US and British military estimates came four days after dozens of reports began surfacing in Ukrainian conventional and social media, some sourced to statements by senior Ukrainian officials, that the UAF was beginning a series of local counterattacks designed to destroy or isolate RF forces and, if possible, to take ground to push RF forces and their artillery away from Kyiv.
A Sunday RF artillery strike on a Kyiv shopping center killed eight.
Ukraine’s army general staff in a Monday statement said that UAF forces had “cut off” RF forces north of Kyiv, triggering an avalanche of speculation about possible encirclement and potentially destruction of RF forces near Kyiv. At the same time, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry released statements and images documenting the return of police patrols and supposed clear UAF control of the north Kyiv villages Makariv and Irpen’ – both scenes of weeks of bitter fighting.
Oleksei Arestovych, a Presidential Administration senior advisor, in a Thursday statement claimed that the recent UAF attacks in Kyiv’s vicinity had left 3,000 RF troops “practically surrounded”, and another 4,000 “cut off and in a very unpleasant situation, they can’t move to the right and the can’t move to the left.” Another 5,000 are in positions in Kyiv’s vicinity, he said.
According to official Ukrainian sources, media reports, eyewitness accounts and social media images and statements, RF forces Russian forces approaching Kyiv from the north have faced serious difficulties moving quickly south due to fierce UAF resistance, limited roads, and difficult off-road terrain consisting mostly of pine forest and swamps. The region is chronically subject to heavy Spring flooding in the well-known “rasputitsia” melt season, which in practical terms began almost simultaneously with the RF’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24.
