On May 12, Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrii Taran stated that, for now, his country did not face any immediate danger of a Russian invasion through neighboring Belarus. Nonetheless, he assured that Kyiv was “meticulously monitoring the situation” and evaluating available plans for responding to such a contingency. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has long guaranteed that Ukraine has nothing to fear from the north; and clearly, in Kyiv’s estimation, those promises appear credible at least for the time being.

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