The Belorysy i Rynok newspaper asked three prominent Belarusian analysts to predict the country’s near future. But two out of three only shared observations, not forecasts. Thus, Piotr Rudkovsky, head of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, observed that for any political regime, creating an enemy out of half of the population is irrational. According to Yauheni Preiherman, head of Minsk Dialogue, pressure from the West always makes the Belarusian regime toughen its stand vis-à-vis domestic opposition. Besides, this pressure limits President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s ability to say no to Moscow, whose new push to boost the level of integration with Belarus is a sure bet. Only Andrei Yeliseyev, director of Warsaw-based EAST center, predicted that the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly to be convened Feb. 11-12 will elect a presidium with Lukashenka as its chairman, which will allow him to delegate his current post to a loyalist like Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko or the chairwoman of the upper chamber of the parliament, Natalya Kachanova.
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Grigory Ioffe: Even the near future is uncertain in Belarus
A blindfolded feminist activist holds a photograph of opposition figure Maria Kolesnikova imprisoned after Belarus presidential elections on August 9, 2020, as she protests against police violence in Minsk, on Jan. 16, 2021.
