Arriving at some clarity regarding the situation in Belarus has become harder than ever before. An unstable equilibrium begets a cacophony of opinions that do not lend themselves to generalization or to teasing out a common idea. Alexander Klaskovsky of Belapan writes, “[Presidents Alexander] Lukashenko [of Belarus] and [Vladimir] Putin [of Russia] are sitting in the same anti-Western trench”. Arseny Sivitsky of the Minsk-based Center for Strategic Studies argues, “[French President] Emmanuel Macron’s statement that Lukashenko has to go and Macron’s meeting with [Lukashenko’s chief rival in the August presidential elections] Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Vilnius not only derive from Minsk’s reluctance to communicate with the West but also constitute a position Macron reconciled during his phone talk with Vladimir Putin; this position reflects attitudes in the Kremlin”. Finally, in an interview with Current Time TV, Arkady Dubnov, a liberal Moscow-based political analyst, posited, “Moscow may turn out to be late installing its creature that would replace Lukashenka, and in that case, it would have to negotiate with Tikhanovskaya, too”.
OP-ED
Grigory Ioffe: Post-Lukashenko Belarus
Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko takes the oath of office during his inauguration ceremony in Minsk on Sept. 23, 2020.
