What will happen in Belarus, and when? Any attempt at addressing this question would need to invoke such variables as the level of unity of Belarusian society, actions of the political regime, the health of the Belarusian economy, the role of Moscow, and the relative commitment of the West. Perhaps it is symptomatic that an extensive Jan. 8 interview with Belarusian analyst Artyom Shraibman touched upon all those variables except the last one.

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