Ukraine’s president-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy is about to take over running a country of 42 million people, and they still don’t know much about his key policies or team members.
This should worry both Ukrainians and the West. Not only because the former comedian has no political experience, but because the country is at war with a hegemon on its eastern border, the country is poor, and its economy is sensitive to any internal and external shocks.
Let’s not undervalue the importance of experience in politics. Anyone who has taken at least one course in political science understands that it is a skill that takes years to acquire. What is seen on TV is not the same as what actually happens behind closed doors, when difficult decisions are made. It requires a lot of training to master politics, diplomacy, negotiations, and compromise, as does any other sphere of work. If I go to a doctor, I look for one who has the most experience. A president is no different.
There are those who argue that Zelenskiy is a skilled manager. Maybe. But a good manager of one business is not necessarily going to be good at managing a different type of business – more so when managing a country, as businesspeople are not politicians. I highly recommend reading John Paul Rollert’s “President’s Aren’t CEOs.”
There are those who say that it is not so important how competent Zelenskiy is as long as he has a good team. I disagree. A team can suggest ideas and give advice but ultimately it will be the leader – the president – who will make those decisions. An indecisive leader means lost time for the country. For example, so far we have heard contradictory messages from Zelenskiy’s key people on economic and financial policies. An investigation by journalists revealed how Zelenskiy’s campaign team is divided into four groups that often have different goals and strategies.
So far Zelenskiy’s team doesn’t appear great. Good advisors would have already told him to name his candidates for specific key positions as it’s important for Ukraine’s strategic, Western partners to understand the shape of the coming administration. All we know for now are a few names connected to some vague positions.
Moreover, Zelenskiy has already made a lot of populistic promises that he will not be able to fulfill.
For example, Zelenskiy’s campaign promised to lower the cost of utility bills. According a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 39 percent of Ukrainians believe the new president will do this (this also means that these supporters are mostly poor). And according to the same poll, 36 percent of Ukrainians expect him to investigate high-end corruption. Yet only a day after the election, Dmytro Razumkov, who will be in charge of domestic policy under Zelenskiy, had already backtracked, saying that cutting utility bills and putting people in jail are not within the president’s competency.
Zelenskiy also proposed to have a 5 percent tax that would be applied to all of Ukraine’s oligarchs’ wealth and then require them to play by equal rules as the rest of Ukrainians. How exactly will this be done? How will their wealth be calculated, since much of it is hidden? And how will he make sure that they play by the rules after that?
The 25 percent
Zelenskiy won the presidential election with an unprecedented 73 percent of the national vote.
But many of the 25 percent of Ukrainians who voted for Poroshenko were not so much pro-Poroshenko as they were anti-Zelenskiy. They were against gambling with their country on someone they know very little about. Some from the other 75 were quick to dismiss them as naïve, and as those who don’t understand Ukraine’s corruption problem. But the 25 percent’s concerns should be heard, as these voters included many highly educated Ukrainian leaders.
Their concerns are obvious: voting for a leader who has no political experience is a risk, and the fact that the leader still hasn’t announced his team and concrete strategy are additional risks for a country at war.
Will he be able to stand up for Ukraine’s national interests against Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, does Russia have any “kompromat” (compromising material or information) against the former comedian, who until recently did a major chunk of his business in Russia? How will he represent Ukraine abroad? Will strategic partners take him seriously? Such questions spring to mind.
In addition, during the last days of the campaign Zelenskiy publicly broke the law twice – when he didn’t appear on TV for the presidential debate on national broadcaster Suspilne, and when he showed his marked ballot indicating who he voted for during election day. Will he be as careless when he is president? Might he expose sensitive information to the enemy? Will he break the law when he is president? These questions also spring to mind.
The president elect also lied at least twice before becoming president. First, he lied to investigative journalists that he did not have any business in Russia. Second, he did not declare a posh villa in Italy. He also downplays his obvious links with oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky.
Business support
Before the second round of the election, Zelenskiy’s political rival Poroshenko still retained the support of the majority of businesses in Ukraine.
This was evident during his meeting with hundreds of representatives from the business community at the InterContinental Hotel in Kyiv on April 15, when the president was applauded several times throughout his speech. The event was organized by the European Business Association, the biggest business association in Ukraine with over 1,000 members.
The past four years have been far from perfect for businesses: Russia’s war in the east, the devaluation of the hryvnia by over 60 percent, gross domestic product halving in just a matter of months, low foreign direct investment flows, ongoing corruption, raider attacks etc. Despite that, Ukrainian civil society and business community kept pushing for reforms, resulting in Ukraine’s rising by 40 places since 2013 in the World Bank’s global Ease of Doing Business index.
But the business climate in Ukraine is still far from perfect, the business community doesn’t want to see any additional shocks to the economy, and taking big risks isn’t good for any business, at any time. Ukraine’s economy returned to growth only recently: three percent, which is nothing extraordinary but much better than the negative double digits contraction of the economy from a couple of years ago. So businesses want stability, and Poroshenko represented that – they simply do not know what exactly to expect from Zelenskiy, especially given his connections to Kolomoiskiy.
I spoke with an influential business leader in Ukraine who said that there are concerns about a Zelenskiy presidency within the financial, aviation and energy sectors – all ones in which Kolomoisky has, or has had, major strategic assets that were hurt during Poroshenko’s presidency.
Zelenskiy needs to reassure the business community that their voices will be heard. He should meet with them regularly, as they are the drivers of Ukraine’s economy. Zelenskiy should also reach out to Ukrainians living abroad and the diaspora, who mostly voted for Poroshenko, to reassure them that they will be heard as well. In 2018 alone, Ukraine received $14.4 billion in remittances from Ukrainians working abroad.
No time to lose
Ukraine doesn’t have time to give Zelenskiy any benefit of the doubt. Russia, and those of Ukraine’s oligarchs who were suppressed during Poroshenko’s rule, are not losing any time in planning their return to power. As with any switch of power in Ukraine, we can expect to see more raider attacks on businesses, and reversals of court decisions.
Poroshenko offered his help to Zelenskiy to provide a smooth transition of power. Zelenskiy should accept it as quickly as possible to make sure he is up-to-date on all of Ukraine’s critical matters.
To avoid a new “25-75” divide, Ukrainians should also unify on the demands that they have for the new president and hold him accountable. The number one demand should be guaranteeing that Zelenskiy will not be influenced by Kolomoisky, making sure that the country’s largest bank, PrivatBank, is not returned to the oligarch.
And the bar of demands for Zelenskiy should be as high as it was for Poroshenko, if not more – Zelenskiy promised a lot, and hopes are high. With every promise unfulfilled, Ukrainians will become angrier, more cynical and desperate – something the Kremlin will also take advantage of.
For Zelenskiy, a celebrity, who has made a career out of being popular, the inevitable public disaffection that comes with being president will sting.
No one is questioning the legitimacy of Ukraine’s presidential election, which was the most democratic in history. But Ukrainians should realize that Zelenskiy is not some kind of political messiah. Like any president, Zelenskiy has the potential to be either Ukraine’s best president or its worst. It will require a critical civil society and honest independent media to hold the new leader to account.
And for Zelenskiy, the formerly fictional president, the realities of running the country will soon be apparent. He should realize that things just got serious, and the country will not find it funny if he fails.
