Russia has remained silent in the face of an attempted coup in the separatist enclave of Luhansk. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow is closely following events, as forces loyal to fired “Interior Minister” Ihor Kornet surrounded government buildings. Despite the fact that Peskov said the Kremlin knew what was going on –“there is an understanding” in the Kremlin about who may be behind the tension—forces loyal to the security ministry, the people’s militia, and the military headquarters were not involved in the fighting, according to the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta. Such neutrality indicates that the Russian government has not decided who to support in the struggle.
It appears the coup attempt is a personal rivalry between Kornet and the “president” of Luhansk, Igor Plotnitsky. The bad feelings have a long history, mired in assassinations of political rivals and court cases. One of the more provocative moments came on 9 November 2017, when Plotnitsky evicted Kornet from a home Kornet seized in 2014 from a family that had fled Luhansk. Things came to a head when the Leninskyi district court dismissed Kornet from his post, followed by Plotnitsky dismissing the “Interior Minister.” A battle of dueling videos ensued, in which Kornet dismissed “rumors” of his dismissal and Plotnitsky confirming the firing.
Kornet’s troops control the streets of Luhansk, while Plotnitsky loyalists continue to hold the interior of government buildings. In a harbinger of what may come, however, Luhansk police and security forces from Donetsk stormed the prosecutor’s office and arrested the separatists’ chief prosecutor and military prosecutor. While the troops did not identify their loyalty, the fact that they broke into government buildings and arrested individuals involved in a criminal investigation against Kornet are indicators they support the rebel faction.
Who will win in this internecine dispute will be determined in Moscow. Plotnitsky was elected “president” in 2014 with the approval of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal representative on the Ukrainian crisis, Vladislav Surkov. Plotnitsky could only have remained in power this long if he had the approval of the Kremlin. By contrast, however, as the leader of the separatists’ interior ministry, Kornet has a close working relationship with the Russian intelligence service, the FSB. Moscow will need to decide the ally of which faction in the Kremlin is allowed to succeed.
Once that decision is made, Russia has already placed forces in the area to enforce its will. Ukrainian intelligence notified Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on 21 November that Russian tanks had crossed into the Luhansk district. In addition, a convoy of military vehicles appears to have entered Luhansk from the direction of Donetsk, according to the OSCE.
The two sides have reached an impasse, with Kornet insisting Plotnitsky must recognize he remains in power, while Plotnitsky has charged Kornet with launching an attempted coup. While Luhansk is full of armed men, many masked and without insignia, there has not been any fighting. If Russia supports Kornet, it might indicate a hardening of the Kremlin’s position. Kornet’s connections with the security services is an indication of a more conservative orientation. In addition, Kornet is not a party to the Minsk Accords of February 2015. Should he emerge on top and declare Plotnitsky’s actions invalid, it could allow the separatists to walk away from the peace process. This would give Russia maximum flexibility to act as peacemaker, with the choice of either forcing Kornet to the negotiating table or insisting on Russian peacekeeping troops to keep the rebel Kornet in check. A Plotnitsky victory, by contrast, would mean a continuation of the status quo.
The United States has little influence in the Luhansk spat. Just as Vladimir Putin is controlling the peace processes in Syria and in Azerbaijan, he also controls what happens in this rebel stronghold.
James J. Coyle is a senior non-resident research fellow of the Atlantic Council, and the Director of Global Education at Chapman University, Orange, California
