The main problem lies in the fact that Europe’s fatigue from Ukraine is influencing the internal processes of Germany, the undisputed leader of the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is forced to deal with the growing dissatisfaction with sanctions against Russia on her own.
In June, the second most important person in German politics, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, called for reconciliation with Moscow. This statement indicates a split in the local elite, which will automatically lead to further loss in Ukraine’s position. Steinmeier turned out to be incapable of dealing with reality when his party of Social Democrats rapidly began losing support amid increasing strength of the left-wing and anti-migrant party Alternative for Germany. In order to reverse this, the Social Democrats began incorporating more pro-Russian rhetoric of their opponents. Also, Steinmeier continues to be influenced by his former boss, the ex-chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who now works at Gazprom.
The next elections to the Bundestag will take place in about a year. Ukraine has joined the list of issues of the election, forcing Europeans to increasingly wonder why they must sacrifice economic interests when Kyiv proves incapable of meeting expectations. Why should taxpayers in Baden-Württemberg be forced to provide financial support to the incompetent Ukrainian government, which isn’t ready to fight corruption and collect its due from its oligarchs?
In addition, Berlin is frustrated with Ukraine’s foot-dragging on the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Torn apart by internal problems, German leaders would like to close at least one front—the Ukrainian one. They make pleas to bring Minsk to life in order to convince voters of their effectiveness.
Ukraine fatigue, now weighed upon the Germans, will last a while. The political situation will not be getting any better. In half a year, Steinmeier will probably run for the German presidency, and in order to strengthen his support among leftist pro-Russian forces, he’ll only increase his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. After that, Germany will turn to the election campaign to the Bundestag, and the question of relations in the Berlin-Moscow-Kyiv triangle will become key in the positions the parties take. If the Social Democrats create a coalition with the left forces and the Greens, a shift in the whole German political line towards Russia will be guaranteed.
Besides Germany, France will also hold presidential elections next year. A change of the Dutch government is possible as well. Right now, pro-Ukrainian forces lead these countries, even if it doesn’t always seem this way from Kyiv. With a departure of President François Hollande in the midst of Nicolas Sarkozy’s pro-Russian rhetoric and the direct financing of Marine Le Pen from Russia, Ukraine may find itself in a new reality in which pro-Russian groups dominate key European nations.
The only ones that deserve to be blamed for this are the president, parliament and our government, which have proven incapable of waging open war against corruption. Instead, Ukraine celebrates the anniversary of the beginning of “deoligarchization” with an unprecedented swindle.
In the energy sector, billionaire Rinat Akhmetov and other figures receive additional profit thanks to absurd coal pricing: a quotation in Rotterdam along with the cost of delivery to Ukraine. The reality though is that the coal is coming from the occupied territories of Donbas and going to the thermal power stations of eastern Ukraine, without going to Rotterdam or even Odesa. Like this, about $1 billion will go to Akhmetov and other schemers sitting under the wing of the lawmaker Ihor Kononenko.
A cooling of relations with the West would mark the point of no return for the current Ukrainian government, simply because it has nowhere else to borrow money for survival. The help of Brussels and Washington on the anti-corruption front would be priceless if it were used to punish criminals and if hard sanctions were imposed against shady figures.
When Berlin became a center of culture and music after German reunification in the 1990s, it was often described as “poor but sexy”—say, even though we’re poor, we’re cool. Just as this, honesty must absolutely become “sexy” in Ukrainian politics. Such are the laws of history: Ukrainian thieves aren’t lucky to live in the era of social networking, online publications, and total transparency. It’s only a matter of time before they’re doomed to fall. The generational change will happen much faster than it may appear to those who love to reach into the pockets of the state.
Sergii Leshchenko is a lawmaker with the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko and a former journalist. This op-ed was originally published in Russian in Novoye Vremya magazine and reprinted with permission. Translation by Thomas Phillipoff. n
