Can Lukashenko survive? While not impossible, it is looking increasingly unlikely. With the situation on the ground moving so quickly, though, I will not pretend to predict whether Lukashenko will have fallen, declared martial law, or however else he may have responded to the current wave of protests by the time this goes online. As Lenin wrote, “it is impossible to predict the time and progress of revolution. It is governed by its own more or less mysterious law.”
OP-ED
Mark Galeotti: Moscow is not Minsk, but it is in its shadow
A woman wearing a white dress holds flowers as she expresses her solidarity with the Belarusian people in central Saint Petersburg on August 15, 2020.
