Ukraine, with its ongoing war with Russia and a weak economy, very much depends on cooperation with international partners. Therefore tracking their policy changes is vital.
Last week U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, a Democrat, was reported to be considering participating as a candidate in the presidential election. This is great news for Ukraine. Here is why.
Biden has a long political career, including two unsuccessful presidential races, and has spent the last six and a half years as vice president in the Barack Obama administration. In that role he gave behind-the-scenes foreign police advice to the president, especially what concerns strategic foreign policy issues related to Ukraine, as well as Iraq, Mexico, and Turkey.
Since the Revolution of Dignity, Biden has had a large role in U.S. policy toward Ukraine. During the protests, Biden had nine phone calls with former President Viktor Yanukovych, urging him to negotiate with the demonstrators on the Maidan. He also traveled to Ukraine in April and November 2014, and spoke recently at the U.S.-Ukraine Business Forum in July.
Biden has heralded Ukraine’s internal reform process—viewing it as critical. He has not shied away from calling out the need for reforms and the need to curb rampant corruption. Biden has continued to push for jail sentences for individuals found guilty of corruption.
I am not implying that Biden might be a better candidate than others in the U.S. presidential race. That decision is up to Americans. What I want to say is that Ukrainians couldn’t dream of a better batch of U.S. presidential candidates. For us, it’s a win-win.
On the Democratic Party side, Biden joins the front-runner Hillary Clinton, who is also fully aware of the intricacies of the Ukrainian-Russian relations. Over the past months, she has called for more military assistance and increased financial support for the Ukrainian government. Meanwhile in the Republican Party, all the front-runners have also expressed their support for Ukraine and only differ in nuances and emphasis. This means that the key question in the debates will not be whether to help Ukraine, but how to do it.
Yet, things could change for the better if Biden were to run. His candidacy would likely shift some of the electoral attention towards international issues. With Biden, the two most prominent Democratic candidates would both have foreign policy expertise, meaning that their opponents would need to be drilled on their policy issues on be on the par.
In the current domestic environment, U.S. candidates can win political points by being tough on Russia and supporting Ukraine. But how far they will be prepared to venture into verbal conflict is yet to be seen. A majority of Americans.
A majority of Americans (53 percent in February 2015, http://www.people-press.org/2015/02/23/increased-public-support-for-the-u-s-arming-ukraine/) still oppose providing arms to the Ukrainian government. The poll had no breakdown by political preferences, but this public opinion could constrain the candidates’ actions or rhetoric.
Ultimately Ukrainians should be aware that what these candidates say on the campaign trail could be quite different from what they would do in office. It is far easier to look tough by calling out Russian aggression than taking actions that U.S. politicians may view as escalating the situation.
Regardless, any expressed support for Ukraine during the U.S. presidential campaigns will be helpful for us—especially for keeping Ukraine on the global agenda. So, good luck to Biden, Clinton, and all the candidates across the Republican field, and keep Ukraine in your mind and hearts as you run!
