Vladimir Putin has gained his reputation as a strategic thinker and mover by being one step ahead of his opponents. His blitz annexation of Crimea caught a world off-guard, thinking: “He’ll never do that.” Putin moved into the Syria conflict with the West unprepared, just in time to save client Bashar Assad’s regime. When the West made a concerted effort to isolate him politically, he introduced regular forces into east Ukraine and gained a seat for himself as a “mediator” at the Minsk peace talks. Putin is seen as constantly wrong-footing hapless Western leaders, who must react to him, rather than vice-versa.

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