I attended a small meeting at Stanford as the primaries went into full swing. The get-together included several former senior members of the Obama and Bush administrations. They agreed that the new president, irrespective of party, will try a new reset with Putin. Yes, Trump has made clear his intent to explore “good relations” with Russia and fulfill “a central [campaign] promise…to forge a working partnership with Russia, turning an old adversary into an ally in combating terrorist networks overseas and other global threats that bedeviled President Barack Obama.” Were Hillary Clinton president-elect, she would sooner or later be making the same announcement.
Regrettably, the prospects for a successful negotiation with Putin over the “unsatisfactory condition of Russian-American relations” are near zero for the following reasons: The Putin regime requires confrontation with the US for its very survival, while Trump must deliver “beautiful deals” that “make American great again.” If Trump were to sign a deal which does not yield real enforceable concessions by Putin on Crimea, east Ukraine, or the Middle East, Trump’s deal-making image would be shattered along with his presidency.
