In five weeks, Ukraine is set to hold nationwide local elections that will bring in new mayors and members of local councils at all levels.
But the triumphant march of the ruling Servant of the People party, which swept away old-regime politicians in parliament last year, seems to have come to an end. Moreover, the president’s party may be defeated, and the old, corrupt elites will retain control of the money in large cities. When Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president, part of his entourage advised him to announce not only snap parliamentary elections but also to call for early local elections. This move would have ensured that the reboot of power happened on all levels in 2019. But the idea was abandoned, and now as Oct. 25 local elections approach, Servant of the People’s ratings are a far cry from what they used to be.
In a similar predicament, the Five Star Movement party in Italy refused to run in the local elections. In Ukraine, the ruling party can’t afford such a luxury because the vacuum will be immediately filled by opponents of the president, easily destabilizing the situation in the country, especially since some of them are quite openly pro-Russian. Therefore, Servant of the People is going to run for election, but has admitted they may not see their nominees in the first place.
Why did this happen?
The reason for such a tumble after the triumphs of the 2019 elections is a mix of inexperience of the ruling party, decentralization reform, the growing toxicity of local politics and the conservatism of the voter. In three key cities of eastern and southern Ukraine, each with more than 1 million residents and where Zelensky won a landslide victory last year, Servant of the People has nothing to oppose the current mayors. Odesa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov, Dnipro’s Borys Filatov, and Kharkiv’s Hennadiy Kernes are leading the polls and are likely to secure another five-year term. In the case of Kernes, this can only happen if he survives COVID-19, which is complicated by his chronic illness due to an assassination attempt he survived in 2014. He is in serious condition and, on Sept. 16, he was evacuated to German for treatment.
Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov
One of the reasons why these mayors might remain in their seats is the decentralization reform brought by the EuroMaidan Revolution that deposed Kremlin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Because of it, their cities’ budgets received much more tax money than before. Even notoriously corrupt officials began to use some of that money to pay for flashy infrastructure projects. And residents, who have suffered for decades, believed in the management skills of the mayors, who in fact just benefited from improved access to taxpayers’ pockets.
Notably, the trust in them was not undermined even by high-profile corruption scandals. The mayor of Odesa, Trukhanov, leads the polls with almost 50% support, although he is under investigation for allegedly embezzling city money by buying a local factory at an inflated price.
The second reason why the incumbent mayors face no competition is that politics is not welcoming to young leaders. The old elites can be defeated by someone extremely popular, like a show business star or a recognizable business person who will agree to trade their comfortable lifestyle for the pressure of daily criticism, smear campaigns and work under conflicting legislation.
Besides, for many years, there has been no political competition as such in the large cities, and there are no opposition leaders. They didn’t have time to evolve.
Race in Odesa
In Odesa, the candidate from Servant of the People is well-known local comedian Oleg Filimonov, who was personally vetted by Zelensky. He won the party’s unofficial primaries, leaving behind two little-known members of parliament from Odesa Oblast. The choice of Filimonov makes sense — there are simply no other popular candidates who would agree to run: Local businessman Andriy Stavnitser prefers to stay in the private sector and Mikheil Saakashvili is still trying to find his place between Georgia and Ukraine.
However, one must remember that Trukhanov doesn’t guarantee himself power even in case of re-election, as the newly created Anti-Corruption Court may find him guilty of corruption, which will automatically lead to his loss of office.
Odesa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov (Oleg Petrasiuk)
The third reason for the possible defeat of Servant of the People in local elections is that it is essentially a startup party. Accordingly, they can only rely on a promoted brand and association with the president. In turn, local politicians become hostages to the volatility of the president’s ratings.
And the final reason why the current mayors of big cities have a good chance to keep their mandates is voter fatigue from experiments.
Voters are more likely to support the predictable old corrupt bosses, who mask themselves as skillful administrators, than little-known candidates from the ruling party.
Therefore, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, for example, Servant of the People relies on the team of Ihor Kolomoisky that already controls the regional council. They go with it because they don’t want to fight against the oligarch in his base region, expending an incredible effort for an unpredictable result. Instead, Servant of the People apparently wants to rule in Dnipro with Kolomoisky, dividing zones of influence.
Battle in Lviv
The situation in western Ukraine’s Lviv is different from other big cities. There will be a real battle, where ex-President Petro Poroshenko will try to take power. The incumbent mayor, Andriy Sadovy, who is running for a fourth term, still has support — but not enough to guarantee his re-election.
His political rivals and the business clans behind them have joined forces to take down Sadovy. For example, Ihor Kryvetsky, a Lviv businessman and one of the main sponsors of the nationalist Svoboda Party, nicknamed Pups (“baby doll”), who reportedly has ties to the criminal underworld, is coordinating efforts with Poroshenko to bring a joint candidate to the second round.
Kryvetsky and Svoboda nominated former Verkhovna Rada vice speaker Ruslan Koshulynsky for Lviv mayor. Poroshenko and Lviv Tobacco Factory owner Hryhoriy Kozlovsky nominated former Lviv
Oblast Governor Oleh Syniutka. Whoever goes to the second round with Sadovy will be endorsed by the incumbent’s other opponent. Together, they will likely kick Sadovy out of city hall.
Crowded Kyiv
The campaign for mayor of Kyiv might be the most interesting one. Poroshenko decided to exploit his brand in the election but didn’t want to be associated with an inevitable defeat at the hands of Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Therefore, the party will be led by the wife of the ex-president, Maryna Poroshenko. Supporters of the European Solidarity party swallowed this manifestation of nepotism. Poroshenko is accustomed to the whole family going to the polls: Poroshenko’s father was previously elected a deputy of local councils and his eldest son was elected to parliament.
Poroshenko declared his support for Klitschko. However, the incumbent mayor brushed it off. He can afford to do so — he would win anyway but doesn’t want to be associated with him. An alliance with Poroshenko, brokered in 2014 in Vienna with oligarch Dmytro Firtash in the room, made Klitschko mayor and Poroshenko president. But now Klitschko wants to end it.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko
The Voice party, which is gradually recovering from rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s escape from politics, is also going to give Poroshenko a fight in an attempt to take away their voters. In Kyiv, Voice has recently received some reinforcements: the former head of the customs service, Max Nefyodov, who will run for Kyiv city council, and popular showman Serhiy Prytula, who is running for mayor and polling second after Klitschko. Realizing that it’s almost impossible to defeat Klitschko, Servant of the People nominated Iryna Vereshchuk, whose goal seems to be to elegantly lose the mayoral election in Kyiv but de facto to run an all-Ukrainian campaign to promote the ruling party.
But political battles won’t be limited to Election Day. Opposition forces, including Poroshenko and Viktor Medvedchuk’s pro-Russian project, are trying to turn the 2020 local elections into a fourth round of the presidential election. The campaigns of both parties shift attention to the all-Ukrainian agenda. Instead of sewers and public transport, they discuss Ukraine’s official language and dependence on the International Monetary Fund.
This is done to announce a loss of legitimacy by the current government after the local elections. And then Poroshenko and Medvedchuk, from opposite flanks, may try to get early parliamentary elections, at a minimum.
The grand goal is to remove Zelensky and transform Ukraine into a parliamentary republic, which will turn the decision-making process into a roundtable of oligarchs.
This is my grim forecast for the coming months in Ukrainian politics.
Sergii Leshchenko is a Kyiv Post columnist, investigative journalist, and former member of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament.
