Populists will do whatever it takes to come to power including using lies and deceit. We have seen this in the British Brexit referendum where lies were spread by the Vote Leave campaign, and in the case of Donald Trump, he cannot exist without falsifying reality, exaggerating and lying.
Therefore, it is not surprising that in ranking that Vox Ukraine does every six months the top liars in Ukrainian politics are populists. Yulia Tymoshenko always comes first followed by three Opposition Bloc Members of Parliament Yuriy Boyko, Vadym Rabinovych and Oleksandr Vilkul. While we should not be surprised by three former pro-Russian Party of Regions leaders being in the top five liars in Ukrainian politics, what should concern Ukrainian voters is how can a supposedly pro-European politician (Tymoshenko) be ranked in first place?
The reason for large amounts of doubt in the minds of Ukrainian voters is because Tymoshenko has long been seen as a politician who will do and say anything to take power. Again, this is the same as populists in Europe and the U.S. who also make promises that cannot be met and lie without limit.
In Tymoshenko’s case the biggest discrepancy lies in her claim to be a supporter of NATO and European Union membership contrasted with the poor voting record of her 20-member Batkivshchyna Party in parliament which is a reflection of her staunch opposition to all International Monetary Fund-supported reforms. Tymoshenko is ranked for her poor voting record on reforms by Vox Ukraine being 330rd out of the 423 Ukrainian members of parliament. Tymoshenko and Batkivshchyna’s opposition to all reforms has existed since 2014 and includes every sector such as pensions, healthcare, land privatisation and now utility prices.
This hypocrisy and attempt to deceive Ukrainian voters is why the entire auditorium at the Yalta European Strategy applauded when BBC Hardtalk Stephen Sachur asked Tymoshenko how could she call herself pro-European when she and Batkivschyna oppose reforms?
This contradiction between rhetoric and action was defined as a vacuous multi-vector foreign policy that began under former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and continued under every Ukrainian president until 2014. President Viktor Yushchenko was seen as the ‘pro-Western’ president that remained faithful to the gap between rhetoric and action; that is, he was a multi-vector politician.
And Tymoshenko continues in the multi-vector tradition showing to what degree she is not a ‘new face’ politician. This was especially the case as in 2008 when the Tymoshenko government negotiated a tough agreement with the IMF.
In putting up billboards throughout Ukraine supporting NATO and EU membership and at the same time staunchly opposing IMF demands using vitriolic rhetoric such as “(Today’s) gas price – Poroshenko’s crime against Ukrainians!” Tymoshenko promised “We will stop this mocking of people. Citizens will have gas through their own fair price.”
But not only populists denounced the new IMF agreement as Samopomich Member of Parliament Olena Babak said: “This is a crime against Ukraine” and “we were made into fools and have been deceived!” After this outburst one has to ask if presidential candidate Andriy Sadovyy will also campaign on a platform of populist multi-vectorism?
Tymoshenko is of course lying to the Ukrainian people. Why?
First, because EU financial support for Ukraine through the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Trade Agreement has always been conditional on Ukraine first reaching an agreement with the IMF. Any Ukrainian politician attempting to divide the IMF from the EU is therefore living in a fantasy world that would be extremely destabilising if they were elected president.
Second, the EU, European and North America governments all support IMF demands and will only provide financial assistance after Ukraine has an agreement with the IMF. The G-7 country ambassadors (who are leading members of NATO and the EU) in Kyiv hailed the new Ukraine-IMF agreement as “a key step towards ensuring the future economic stability of Ukraine and continuing economic growth.”
The new IMF agreement with Ukraine will provide $2 billion. Another $2 billion will be provided from the EU and the World Bank. Following the new IMF agreement, the EU is offering Ukraine up to 15 billion euros over the next few years. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said “The package combined could bring an overall support of at least 11 billion euros over the next couple of years, from the EU budget and EU-based international financial institutions” that is “designed to assist a committed, inclusive and reforms-oriented Ukrainian government.”
A third positive factor is that the Ukrainian government is likely to place $2 billion in Eurobonds, and state companies are likely to place Eurobonds at another $2 billion or more. The new financial assistance from the EU and World Bank and the new Ukrainian Eurobonds were dependent upon Ukraine reaching a new agreement with the IMF. Alexander Paraschiy at Concord Capital said the Eurobonds “will allow the government to fully finance the 2019 budget deficit, as well as boost Ukraine’s gross international reserves back to the safe level of over three months of future imports.”
If Tymoshenko was elected president and refused to work with the IMF, the result would be also an end to EU and Western government financial support to Ukraine. Ukrainian voters should then ask Tymoshenko where would she obtain credits? Would she follow Viktor Yanukovych and look for financial loans in Russia and China? There is no free lunch whenever financial assistance is taken, but in the case of Russian ‘loans’ Ukraine will always have to pay a higher geopolitical price.
In the case of the new IMF agreement, Ukraine must adopt a 2019 budget with a deficit of 2.3 percent of gross domestic product, turn the Anti-Corruption Court into reality, and had to raise gas prices by 23.5 percent on Nov. 1.
In opposing the IMF agreement, Tymoshenko is also indirectly opposing next year’s budget and the Anti-Corruption Court for which Batkivshchyna Members of Parliament Ihor Lutsenko, Hryhoriy Nemyrya and Serhiy Vlasenko did not vote.
The days when Ukrainian politicians could hoodwink their voters are over. It is a pity that some politicians have not understood the lessons of the EuroMaidan Revolution that drove pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych out of power. They continue to lie to Ukrainians when they denounce the IMF and at the same claim to be supporters of NATO and EU membership. Politicians who revive Kuchma’s discredited multi-vectorism in 2019 cannot claim to be “new faces.”
Professor Taras Kuzio PhD, Department of Political Science, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy and Non-Resident Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins University – SAIS. Member of editorial boards of Demokratizatsiya and Eurasian Geography and Economics.
