Kyiv Post has compiled some of the most recent astute observations made by our regular contributor, Swedish expert Anders Aslund, on Twitter.
Let me stick out my neck:
1. I think Ukraine will win this war.
2. I don’t think it will be a long war of months, but perhaps one more month.
3. I think the demoralized Russians will start running home, or abroad.
4. I don’t think Putin can survive this madness politically.
– A common argument is that Putin is so mad that he might start a nuclear war. That is perfectly possible, but if we presume that is the case, which is the most prudent tactic: to move slowly or to give him an early ultimatum. I would say the latter.
– Putin’s regime cannot last for long. It does not serve anybody any longer, not even the tyrant, who must be furious. It is bound to collapse; when, how and at what cost? Where are all the officials? Are they hiding, fleeing abroad, or committing suicide?
– What I can’t understand is why so many military analysts don’t consider that Russia is a kleptocracy and that the rulers only care about how much they can steal. Therefore, they cannot be good at the war. It sinks the economy, but also the military.
– Since military experts seem to talk anything but sense about the Russian assault on Ukraine, let me tell you a few things. I have already discussed the Russian army massive corruption that they patently ignore.
1. Russia sent in 40,000 riot policemen, some in parade uniforms. They wanted to repress the population after having been welcomed (typical Putin oxymoron).
2. 2,000-5,000 of the National Guard policemen were Kadyrovtsy who were there as NKVD troops under Stalin to kill deserters and slow movers. Not good for morale.
3. Putin has mobilized some private contractors, but these Wagnerites often have no experience and no qualifications, so the Ukrainians find them easy loot.
4. The general view among the Ukrainians is that the Russian soldiers are swiftly running out of fuel, food and ammunitions, and they have no clue how to organize their supplies: Sorry that is capitalism! Bezos is on our side!
5. My expectation is that the Kremlin will fail to mobilize significant new troops, only bombs. Anybody who can, will run away from madman Putin as soon as they can. Why allow yourself to be killed for a nasty madman? That makes no sense! Russian soldiers have sense.
– Russia has caused untold terror in Ukraine, probably caused material and human losses in the order of $200 billion. Russia must pay reparations for its ill deeds. Thanks to the $400 bn of frozen Russian Central Bank reserves, the West controls means that can be used for this.
– What Putin and Russia have done in Ukraine are blatant crimes against humanity. The UN International Court of Justice need to prosecute Russia & the International Criminal Court, both in The Hague, need to pursue these cases to the end. Crime must be punished!
