Historically “various means” were used to encourage deputies in the Rada to switch parties, and indeed for independents to join the party of power in Ukraine. In Ukraine it is important to understand that you have “professional” politicians, and careers are made in this kind of political horse trading.
This stuff is important as clearly Poroshenko’s Block Petro Poroshenko (BPP) is trying to increase its roll call in parliament to ensure a majority with Yatseniuk’s People’s Front. The latter has around 81 deputies, and likely BPP something like 142-144 deputies, so very close now to the 226 needed to confirm Hroisman as the new PM – a vote to remove Yastseniuk, and affirm Hroisman as the new PM is expected later today.
Poroshenko and Hroisman are clearly eager to ensure a majority just with the two main parties so as not to be reliant on the likes of the populist Lyashko’s “Popular” party, Tymoshenko or Self-reliance – hence this effort to “lure” deputies over the party line. The problem though is that party discipline for BPP and also Yatseniuk’s People’s Front is likely to be weak. The two score or so ardent Euromaydan supporter in the two main parties are likely to be incensed still by the shennigans over the past few months, and over the anti-graft agenda (or lack of it), and hence their support for Groysman might be soft. Even Yatseniuk personally likely prefers to remain as PM, unless Poroshenko/Hroisman offers him something to keep his political career alive. So he needs to have an interest to vote for Hroisman.
In the end the end Groysman might well be reliant on votes from the Opposition Party, many of whom hail from Yanukovych’s Regions Party, with talk then again of back room deals with oligarchs and business interests. All that will not go down well with EuroMaidan, which likely will just view Groysman as “same old, same old.”
How it came to be Groysman
As of 4 a.m. this morning it appeared as though Groysman had decided in the end to accept the nomination as prime minister, likely to be put to the vote later today, after parliament first votes to accept the resignation of incumbent Yatsenyuk.
It was a bit like a B soap opera last night, with “drama” over who was going to be in Groysman’s cabinet.
Groysman wanted to pull a number of individuals from the presidential administration into his cabinet, presumably to tie Poroshenko’s colors to his cabinet, to ensure full political backing by Poroshenko. He had to threaten to withdraw his own nomination before he seems to have eventually got his way.
Clearly he does not want to suffer the problems of the Yatsenyuk administration where the Cabinet and the presidency were all too often pulling in different directions.
Opponents will just argue that this was a game played out by the presidency to provide the veneer that Groysman is his own man, and independent of the president.
I doubt EuroMaidan will be particularly impressed by all this – watch Odesa Oblast Governor Mikheil Saakashvili, who is likely to make some very critical statements especially as his nemesis, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, looks set to remain in the new cabinet – a condition of Yatsenyuk, his People’s Front and Saakashvili will likely argue its oligarchic backers.
Western creditors at this stage will just be relieved if Ukraine ends up having a functioning government by the end of the week to which they can sign off on stalled International Monetary Fund financing- which is still not a given.
Indeed, the votes on both Yatsenyuk’s ousting and Hroisman’s appointment in the Rada could still be tricky. I assume at this stage that if Poroshenko risks a vote to oust Yatsenyuk, that he is confident that votes have also been secured to approve Groysman.
The worst case arguably for both Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk at this stage would be early parliamentary elections which would then likely result. Opinion polls suggest heavy defeats for both the Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front at this stage – and the big winner is likely to be no other than…..Yulia Tymoshenko, the lady of the braids, who has been quietly rebuilding her own support base and election infrastructure.
Tymoshenko’s political resurrection had appeared inconceivable after her failure to win the support of the EuroMaidan after her release from jail in 2014.
Just a thought but given this political malaise, I think any self-respecting technocrat I think would think more than twice before risking their reputation in joining the administration formed after such a tortuous process of political horse trading – and Ukraine desperately needs to retain/attract high quality professionals in key positions in public administration.
