Man, that was bananas, as in banana in Banana Republic bananas, if you get the drift.
I called Trump 2016 and Brexit right, and had thought that since Joe Biden’s South Carolina primary win that he was odds on to win this time, but even I was throwing in the towel early this morning.
Americans go on about their great constitution, but really? Most emerging markets could show the U.S. how to conduct an election. I mean look at India, a billion-plus people, different states, languages, and they get theirs done all electronically with cast iron results within a couple of hours.
But this was inane, from blue wave tweet from “little” U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio as the polls closed, to the shock of the Florida win, assumption Donald Trump was winning, and then perhaps, just perhaps Biden clawing his way back to win as president but not take the Senate.
That said, Biden might take Wisconsin and Michigan, and if he holds Arizona and Nevada he might not need Pennsylvania, but Nevada looks very soft. So the rollercoaster ride might not be over yet.
Markets hoping for early resolution, and no contested election.
Lots of negativity about the state of US democracy, but the positive here is that Trump energized the political process in the US and actually got people to talk about politics and vote in record numbers. That has to be positive.
Now it might be a close result, but likely Biden will win the popular vote by 5 million, and he could still get to 300 electoral college votes. That’s still a pretty convincing victory, if not the blue wave that we all expected on the polls. And he failed to win the Senate, or that seems to be the case.
Trump is threatening to use the courts to overturn the result, but will he really do that? I think he might just be going through the motions.
I say this as does he actually want a second term?
He has been there, done that, and did not really show a great willingness to do the 24/7 stint which normal POTUS have in their job descriptions. He can still sell this as a huuuuuuge victory on his part, against the odds, and he likely held the Senate for the GOP. No one can write him off, they will hail him as a great campaigner and political genius. And control of the Senate surely means that the Democrats will be unable to take any legal action against Trump in the future for whatever his might have done – he has basically earned himself a get out of jail free card. If the Democrats go after Trump in the courts, they will just risk engaging the GOP base for 2022 or 2024. Trump has also cleared the way for Ivanka 2024, perhaps.
What an ideal scenario for Trump, to let Biden now do the heavy lifting as POTUS, and for Trump to retire to Twitter heaven in Mar-a-Lago, playing some golf and posting tweets all day carping at what a terrible job Biden is doing. And instead, he can work on all the franchising now from his greatly enhanced brand, building the war chest for Family Trump for 2024.
In winning this election, maybe Biden and the Democrats got the poison chalice. They will have to govern with an uncertain mandate, and a GOP Congress. Imagine the confirmation process for the Biden team!
But maybe it won’t be so tough for Biden. He surely owes his victory partly to all the GOP never Trumpers who campaigned and fundraised for him. He has a track record of bipartisanship. I guess he will extend his hand across the aisle to build his cabinet and include some centrist GOP never Trumpers therein – think types like Colin Powell (not saying him but like him).
The country faces huge challenges, so to govern quickly and effectively come Q1 2021, Biden will have to get a team in place super quick. And that means building a centrist team who can win speedy confirmation in Senate. I think there are still a few GOP senators who might just cross the aisle to affirm centrists into the Biden cabinet – guess the likes of senators Mitt Romney and Susan Collins, but still likely at a price. Biden might have a bigger problem herein in managing his own left-wing, who might not be too enthused at the lack of a radical reform agenda, but more of a Clinton 42.
So just saying, amid all the furor around contested election risks, maybe we will be surprised how quickly Trump steps aside, assuming a Biden win for the POTUS is confirmed over the next few hours.
Maybe I am missing something – likely a lot – but I am sure you guys will tell me.
