Events in northern Syria are now moving quite fast, and we might be surprised by how quickly hostilities subside, along a new front line – minus the Yanks – but putting the Turks against the combined Assad/Kurdish YPG forces. If this is the case, this would represent a huge victory for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at home – never write Erdogan off is a long stress-tested mantra!
And if fighting subsides quickly, then sanctions risks will be moderated.
The Europeans are making a lot of noise, but in the end, Erdogan’s threat to dispatch 3.6 million Syrian refugees to Europe is what ultimately counts. The Europeans will make lots of noise but do very little. There will be some temporary arms bans, but Turkey has plenty of other willing suppliers – note therein Russia. And any more substantive sanctions will be blocked by Trump’s allies in Europe – therein, interesting to see Hungary’s Viktor Orban rowing in support of fellow tough man Erdogan.
On the U.S. front, there is a lot of legislative action, with now four Turkey sanctions bills doing the rounds, then U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin making those harsh threats of action to limit Turkish activity in dollar markets. But Mnuchin’s comments did not appear serious, and we know that U.S. President Donald J. Trump really is Erdogan’s point person – therein who would have expected Trump to stall S400 sanctions on Turkey when the entire U.S. establishment was set on imposing them. Trump/Mnuchin comments are likely just aimed at taking the heat out of the sanctions initiatives in Congress, buying Erdogan some time, in the hope that things ultimately calm down in Syria.
Likely what happens on the U.S. sanctions front in Turkey at this stage depends more on what happens in terms of domestic politics in the US, around impeachment, rather than the situation on the ground in Syria. Therein, it is difficult to call – Trump is very unpredictable, and the shuffling of his position on US troops in Syria, seemed aimed more at changing the news cycle in the US, amid notable Congressional testimony (Yovanovitch) and then FDI indictments against GOP funders.
At this stage, Erdogan’s slated trip to D.C. to meet Trump looks a very long way off, albeit if it actually happens it looks set to be a highly changed event, likely with significant demonstrations from Kurdish groups.
Biggest risk now likely is with the Yanks out of Syria, and having no leverage over the Kurdish YPG and others, that we see an upsurge in Kurdish-related violence/terrorism itself in Turkey – somewhat counter to the original logic behind Turkey’s intervention in northern Syria in the first place.
