A major crisis is unfolding which could either make or break President Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidency.
It’s been brewing for a while around elite attempts to derail the anti-corruption agenda which is critical to International Monetary Fund and Western support package to Ukraine, and actually the country’s fight against corruption and its ability to become a country with rule of law.
As background, Ukrainian governments since the EuroMaidan Revolution ousted President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 introduced various anti-corruption institutions that were meant to rein in endemic corruption inflicting society and the economy. These included an anti-corruption prosecutor, anti-corruption agency, asset declarations, and so forth.
In recent weeks the Constitutional Court, the highest court in the land, has ruled much of this architecture unconstitutional, thereby jeopardizing continued credit disbursements from the IMF, European Union, and other international financial institutions which are still key to the country being able to finance itself and hence sustaining macro-financial stability.
Cynically, many have argued that the legislation was initially passed in haste, and on the understanding that likely it was unconstitutional and would be struck down at a point in the future. Now either this was a Trojan horse put in place by politicians who were never serious about fighting corruption, or it was a case of officials doing whatever it took to get access to international financial institution financing as soon as possible at time of crisis when they had no option but to cut corners.
Predictably the legislation was challenged by pro-Russian politicians and oligarchic vested interests, and the Constitutional Court over the past week has ruled against much of this legislation.
In response. the IMF, EU, and G7 ambassadors have read Ukraine the riot act, arguing that any additional credit will be withheld until all these issues are resolved. The EU has also threatened to pull visa-free travel for Ukrainians. That will really hurt ordinary Ukrainians perhaps more immediately than the loss of the anti-corruption institutions.
After perhaps not focusing enough on the building challenges to the anti-corruption agenda, and risks to the IMF program, Zelensky has now come out fighting, perhaps understanding that it is not only the reform agenda, the country’s Western orientation but also his presidency that is on the line.
To his credit, he has resolved to legislate to reinstate much of the anti-corruption infrastructure and is now threatening to investigate Constitutional Court judges, and even sack judges on the court, in response to their recent actions. Zelensky perhaps thinks that by pressuring the court they will reverse their earlier decisions.
The difficulty for Zelensky herein are numerous though:
First: After recent defections and a poor showing in local elections, his Servant of the People Faction likely now lacks a majority in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament. He might have been able to look for support from pro-European opposition parties in the Rada – European Solidarity of former President Petro Poroshenko and Holos. But even that now seems unlikely.
Second: In threatening the Constitutional Court with dismissal, Zelensky risks going down a clearly unconstitutional route. Indeed, both European Solidarity and Holos have signaled they would be unlikely to support Zelensky in such unconstitutional actions, as they would suggest a power grab by the presidency.
Third: Zelensky could appeal beyond the Rada, to the people, calling the population onto the streets to back him against the Constitutional Court and likely the Rada majority. His poll ratings have however sagged recently, and it’s unclear whether reformers even trust him enough at this stage, given his mixed reform track record in office, to support mass demonstrations at this point against the Constitutional Court and the Rada.
Fourth: There is a risk here that Zelensky oversteps the mark, potentially leaving him open to impeachment. I would imagine that some of his political opponents have this as a central part of their game plan. Perhaps this could unite even the pro-European opposition, Poroshenko for example, with the pro-Russian opposition including the likes of Viktor Medvedchuk and Yuriy Boyko. Both these sides likely would want early elections which would result from Zelensky’s impeachment.
All the above is clearly manna from heaven for Ukraine’s enemies, Russia in particular, and some would indeed argue that this whole constitutional crisis is being fueled by Russia. Such a crisis leaves the country weak, and vulnerable to further Russian intervention. And it does seem as though we are seeing new alliances behind old oligarchic forces and pro-Russian elements to undermine political stability in Ukraine for their advantage.
It looks make or break though for the Zelensky presidency. He needs to rally the population behind him in defense of the anti-corruption agenda, Western orientation, and also the continuation of IMF financing. Failure to do so could see the fall of his administration, early elections, constitutional crisis (already ongoing), and again risks of further damaging Russian intervention.
The risks are mounting that a repeat of a revolutionary-style scenario will take place, which I think this time around could have very unpredictable outcomes.
