Yatsenyuk’s office quickly moved to deny, but the response was hardly overwhelming.
And Jaresko’s office was strangely quiet also.
Then these comments from Yatsenyuk essentially calling for unity in the cabinet.
I think the reality is that Yatsenyuk survived the no-confidence motion on Feb. 16, but that was hardly a ringing endorsement.
Indeed the Verkhovna Rada had earlier voted against his government’s performance over the prior year.
Essentially many deputies backed Yatsenyuk as they either did not want early elections or did not think that a successor to Yatsenyuk could win majority backing in the Rada and the outcome of removing Yatsenyuk would have been chaos.
Retaining Yatsenyuk was hence the least worst case outcome for many. That said the fact that Yatsenyuk was only maintained in office with the support, in effect, of old school oligarchic groups of deputies (close to billionaires Rinat Akhmetov and Igor Kolomoisky) grated with many, including Western international creditors.
They want to see Yatsenyuk really now freshen up the cabinet with real technocratic reformers and give them the rope to roll out meaningful reforms.
The problem is that the cabinet formation is a joint work between Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, and both will want their political and economic backers represented, and likely now will also Akhmetov and Kolomoisky.
That does not leave much space for technocrats.
With that in mind I think that pressure has been building for a more radical change, and Jaresko’s appointment would certainly have re-inspired the supporters of the EuroMaidan Revolution as an “outsider” in terms of the oligarchic groups who could shake things up.
I am not sure if Yatsenyuk did resign – but I think (no confirmation, so merely speculation here) that Jaresko was asked if she wanted the top job, and I think likely she is mulling it over.
She is probably torn. On the one part, I think the challenge is a draw, and I think she sees it as her patriotic duty to help the nation recover and deliver meaningful reform.
On the other hand, first I think there is some loyalty to Yatsenyuk (I don’t think she is a brutal political animal yet, who is driven to get to the top and fight over the corpses of her colleagues to do that).
She is weighing up whether she can mount an internal challenge.
Second, I think she knows she lacks a political following in the Rada and might struggle to win majority backing confirming her position.
Launching a bid to oust Yatsenyuk could be high risk, unless his own party abandons him first – maybe that is what is going on now, as lobbying of his People’s Party deputies goes on.
Third, I think there is shear exhaustion on the part of Jaresko and other reformers, and the question is do they have the energy to pick up the baton.
Suffice to say, the eerie quiet over the weekend was telling and suggestive of lots of lobbying/conversations in the background to figure out a way forward.
Maybe the news of Yatsenyuk’s ousting was a trial balloon sent up to see the reaction in Yatsenyuk’s own party, and to gauge likely support for Jaresko.
Clearly the market and investors would love Jaresko’s appointment – and International Monetary Fund credit releases could come pretty quickly thereafter. But getting there could still be difficult. I guess we will get more clarity over the shape of the next cabinet after the Normandy peace process meetings later this week.
