Likely Groysman faces the best chance of getting confirmed by the Rada as prime minister.
I assume backroom deals have already been done with business interests in the Verkhovna Rada, including billionaire Akhmetov, and possibly even elements in the Opposition Bloc.
So this likely offers the best chance of a speedy end to the current crisis over the ruling coalition at least in the Rada.
There has been talk of deals over the Donbas, with Akhmetov, so it will be interesting to see what has been done there.
The problem will likely be selling this deal to EuroMaidan Revolution (activists), given eastern interests might be better represented in the new coalition, or at least is seen to get backing in the Rada from these interests.
Groysman has proven to be a capable local politician/administrator during his time as mayor of Vinnytsa, stepping into Poroshenko’s interests given his chocolate firm has a factory there.
He did a reasonable job as speaker of parliament and has obviously built cross-party relations therein.
Also with the president’s man now running the government, the buck now ends with Poroshenko in reform policies – presumably coordination of reform policies will be improved.
Note there that there has been much criticism that Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk all too often pulled in different directions, with reform suffering as a result.
Not sure that Groysman is an improvement on Yatsenyuk in terms of being able to build and sell a reform agenda – not sure he gets the need for a joined up reform agenda and the danger is he is older school in terms of how he sees reform needs and much less willing to think outside the box.
Presumably a deal has been done to move Yatsenyuk aside – speaker of parliament, which would be a job swap with Groysman?
I think key for the internationals will be who on the technocratic side remains or is brought in – will Natalie Jaresko stay (I doubt it)?
There was talk of the former Slovak Prime Minister Ivan Miklos coming in as finance minister. He has been advising Poroshenko and did some positive and radical things in Slovakia during his time in office.
But Jaresko’s departure would be a big blow as she has done a great job in bringing U.S. support to bear in Ukraine – cannot see Miklos having the same draw/pull, and the EU is in such disarray at the moment, that US support still likely counts for more.
Internationals will also keenly focus on the reform agenda/programme which Groysman will unveil.
There is talk of a vote on a new coalition/government on March 29, with Groysman revealing his reform program before then.
I think the West will still continue to support Ukraine through the International Monetary Fund program, but I think with a Groysman cabinet support will be very conditional, and rule of law will be a prime focus.
But at the same time, with lots going on the international stage, the West likely just wants a new government in place in Ukraine at this stage to buy time/kick the can.
It will be interesting to see how the Nadiya Savchenko case plays out on all this – she might get released over the next couple of weeks in a swap for a couple of Russian soldiers held in Ukrainian custody.
She is a member of parliament for ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s party, and Tymoshenko is likely to greatly oppose Groysman’s appointment as prime minister, instead calling for early elections.
Her return could stir up domestic politics in Ukraine – would Moscow want this now, when with Groysman in power, in a deal with Akhmetov, et al., would he now want to see that, when Moscow might see domestic politics in Ukraine beginning to move his way?
