I guess a fourth options is still early elections, but not sure any of the main ruling parties – Solidarity, Peoples’ Front, or even Self-Help would be greatly enthusiastic therein.
One “winner” might by Yulia Tymoshenko.
I guess Groysman is seen as too close to Poroshenko and possibly even a step back on reform credentials even from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk – but he brings “contacts” in the Rada and probably has a decent chance of securing majority backing. I think the IFIs and the Maydan would be unenthusiastic about Groisman taking the reins at this stage.
Sadoviy is seen as a reformer, albeit has much less political backing in the Verkhovna Rada, having only a score or so of deputies. He has also not held a central government office before, albeit he is the mayor of the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.
Jaresko is clearly the international financial institutions’ and the market’s favorite, but likely lacks political capital in the Rada to secure her appointment – it might be difficult for her to win a confirmation vote.
A Sadoviy/Jaresko team would likely be well received by the markets, if Jaresko opts to stay and work under Sadoviy. That said, some of Sadoviy’s own deputies were less than helpful late last year in trying to force through an aggressive tax-cutting agenda against the best advice of the international financial institutions and Jaresko.
It is still unclear what happens to Yatsenyuk – there are not enough votes against him in the Rada to get rid of him as prime minister, but he does not command a majority to rule, and his party, the Peoples’ Party is needed to ensure a ruling majority behind any other candidate. I guess some “role” will need to be found for Yatsenyuk to encourage him to step down in favour of a new candidate.
Poroshenko is hardly being clear cut/decisive in managing this crisis. My take is that he would prefer the trusted Groysman to take over the reins, but is also mindful not to set the international financial institutions, or the Maidan, against him, so I guess the game plan still is to go through the motions of at least trying to appoint a Jaresko/Sadoviy as prime minister, but ultimately hopeful that these attempts fail to receive majority backing in the Rada, and that Groysman can then be seen to ride to the rescue, forging a majority to prevent a move to early elections, and to keep reform policies on track.
The hope is that we get some greater clarity on all this later today at this session of Poroshenko’s party.
