But I just don’t understand why Ukraine does not think outside the box over this rule of law problem.
And here is the problem – the population see the lack of rule of law and the large-scale corruption of the political class as the number one problem. They want those who abused their positions of power in the past to be brought to account and justice. This is totally understandable given that the masses are poor, have been exploited by Ukraine’s elites who have greatly and grossly enriched themselves largely at their expense – and likely using their positions in/close to state power to do this. Rules and laws were likely broken/manipulated, by way of course, in order to make money and get on, and it must have been hard for anyone close to government not to get pulled in to this post-Soviet way of doing business. This was simply the way business was done, in difficult circumstances where rules and laws often were poorly thought out and often unworkable without “creative” license.
Now bringing people to account is fine, but trying to do this against a state administration and political class which has an obvious incentive to obstruct/delay/stall for fear over personally being brought to account would suggest a long drawn-out game/battle between reformers and stalwarts with an uncertain outcome.
The country might get all consumed by the process, and other reform priorities might get neglected. Ultimately it might destabilise domestic politics to the extent that the country ends up in paralysis – and therein Ukraine has a long track record, remember the “war of laws” of the mid 1990s, or the battles between “reformers” after the Orange Revolution, which ultimately drove reforms into the ground.
Unfortunately, Ukraine seems to be going through 10 years cycles of this – and this cycle needs to be halted. How to halt it? Well I always go back to this idea of drawing a line in the sand.
There has to be some truth and reconciliation process over corruption/rule of law issues, with an amnesty and likely windfall tax component.
Revenge is fine, and likely for capital crimes justice has to be seen to be done.
But for financial crimes, I think if the choice is between getting bogged down in internal political infighting, or drawing a line and allowing the country to move on, wipe the slate clean, grow and develop, I think the latter is obviously preferable.
The message to elites is admit past malpractice, declare all assets won by dubious means, pay a windfall tax on these (maybe 10 percent of 20 percent), and move on.
But future malpractice – not paying taxes due, and hiding assets/wealth, and bending rules will meet with zero tolerance, and maximum fines – jail terms.
Oligarchs will no doubt claim poverty, but they can pay in giving the state back equity shares in their businesses, or payment plans can be worked out.
But I am pretty sure most of them will still have the funds to buy top-end London property, sponsor high profile international conferences (inviting prominent US and European politicians and celebrities), for many years still to come – they have the cash when it is important to them.
If it is choice between paying a windfall tax, or jail, and being barred from doing future business in Ukraine I think they will comply.
Likely also there should be limits on their participation in the political process without full declaration of assets/sources of those plus also paying any windfall taxes due.
Once “cleansed” of responsibility for any financial sins of the past, oligarchs should then have an interest in defending and protecting the remaining assets through supporting rolling out and defending the rule of law in Ukraine.
Perhaps added incentive to pay the windfall tax could be ensured by specifically linking it to lines in the budget such as national defense, or social provision, or healthcare/education.
Anyway, just some food for thought, from an outsider.
