Media reports a defection from the president’s bloc, which formally takes the coalition down to 225 seats in the Verkhovna Rada, one short of a majority again.
I think it is quite likely we see a few more defections/abstentions from both the main parties over this vote (from the EuroMaidan supporters), but likely we will see elements of the opposition, including the Opposition Bloc (mostly former Party of Regions people) back Groysman at this stage, to ensure his approval as prime minister.
Next stage I think the focus will on drawing up a revised memo with the International Monetary Funds, to ensure release of the U.S., IMF and European Union monies, which could total close to $4 billion.
For Western official creditors, it is no longer really about the personalities in key ministerial positions, but delivery on the reform agenda, and with rule of law related reforms key therein.
In theory, IMF credits could come back on track quite quickly, but much will depend on how quickly the new government gets its feet under the table – there have been some quite extensive changes, and I expect the Fund to be quite vigorous at this stage in getting reform commitments nailed down, signed and sealed.
