To an extent I kind of buy this (no full-scale/large-scale conflict), but I think there is a very significant risk of Russia, and its proxies, making some very notable military action in eastern Ukraine.
I believe that as Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised a response to events in recent days in Crimea, and the Russian script that there was some Ukrainian attempted military insurgency to damage infrastructure in Russian-annexed Crimea, that he will inevitably deliver on that promise.
This side of State Duma elections on Sept. 18, and actually Ukraine’s 25-year Independence Day on Aug. 24, it is inconceivable that Putin will not show some form of “decisive” response.
Failure to act – having made much of the disputed events in Crimea – would show weakness to the domestic audience in the run-up to a critical election.
Now we can debate whether this recent upsurge in tensions is State Duma elections related, or due to the Ukraine 25th, or perhaps due to Russian difficulties now in Syria or even a Russian sense that “their man Donald Trump” is inevitably now going to lose in the U.S. election, but what is I think crystal clear now is that Russia will react in a way, against Ukraine, which will be significant with a clear link drawn to retaliation over Crimea.
I don’t imagine a full throttle – Russian tanks in Kyiv in two-weeks scenario – as Russia still likely lacks the military capability there (Ukraine has proven it will fight, and Russia simply lacks the military man power to take and hold the whole of Ukraine which covers a huge territory), but my sense is that we will see a major military offensive, albeit likely limited in spatial and time scope.
This may well be bounded so as to limit the likely European Unions sanctions response – even though I think the West has now developed a sophisticated and geared sanctions response toolkit to different escalation scenarios played out by Russia in Ukraine getting all European Union-28 on line for yet more Russia sanctions will be difficult.
Not sure if our European leaders/politicians are all on their compulsory two-weeks compliance leave (if bankers have to take it, I am sure our leaders will take any similar gigs they can get – and by the way, I am not a fan), or just that no one has the balls to take on Putin as this just does not win votes domestically. But the silence from our European “leaders” has been golden through all of this. Talking of which, where is Federica Mogherini (the EU high representative on foreign relations)?
