Overall they suggest that
residents of Ukraine are relatively patriotic (including in the eastern
regions), have not radically altered their outlooks as a result of the new
language law, and though they are primarily oriented toward the European Union,
they do not perceive the relationship with Russia as hostile, nor do they
anticipate any serious threats to their country from the larger neighbor.
The polls suggest a growing
maturity and confidence among Ukrainians concerning the future of the
independent state that is rarely highlighted in media reports that focus purely
on politics and the elite. On the other hand, there remain significant
differences in outlook between the east and the south vis-à-vis the western
regions in almost every poll. But these divisions are less polarized than has
been the case in the past.
Between Aug. 8 and 18, the
sociological group “Rating” conducted a poll on the territorial boundaries of
Ukraine (http://news.liga.net/ua/news/politics/718720-10_zhitel_v_donbasu_khochut_v_dokremiti_galichinu_opituvannya.htm).
In every area there was
overwhelming opposition to changes to the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Thus 84 percent opposed the idea of separation of Galicia; 90 percent were
against the loss of Crimea; and 90 percent rejected the notion of the
separation of the Donbas region. Regarding the latter, in the Donbas region
alone, only 8 percent support breaking ties with Kyiv. The poll embraced 2,000
respondents, 18 or over, in all parts of the country. At the same time, another
poll indicates, residents have a jaundiced view of the police and judicial
system. A Razumkov poll conducted in the spring of 2012 revealed that 69
percent of those polled have a negative attitude toward the courts, 64 percent
toward organs of prosecution, and 69 percent for the militia. Even in the east
the disapproval of the militia is 55 percent (http://ipress.ua/news/ukraintsi_druzhno_ne_lyublyat_militsiyu_ta_sudy_2557.html). This attitude appears to be
unaffected by political leanings, and geographical location similarly has a
limited impact on popular opinion.
There are analogous
attitudes on the question of “freedom” in Ukraine, according to a Rating survey
carried out from July 14 to 27 with 2,000 respondents. A disturbing 45 percent
of Ukraine residents are of the view that there are encroachments of freedom in
Ukraine, and between 43 and 46 percetn feel that freedom of speech is under
threat. These figures are highest in the West (over 60%), but significant in
all regions, with over 40% holding this opinion in the East and Center. In the
Donbas, however, the majority does not perceive the situation as deteriorating.
That is the view, predominantly, of supporters of Svoboda (based in western
Ukraine) and the United Opposition (over 70 percent) and those of the Ukrainian
Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR), led by heavyweight boxing champion
Vitaliy Klitschko (almost 60 percent). In other words supporters of the Regions
Party and almost 50 percent of those backing the Ukrainian Communist Party do
not consider that there is a threat to their freedoms currently (http://ratinggroup.com.ua/products/politic/data/entry/14015/).
Concerning the new language
law, opinions are quite mixed, based on the results of several different polls.
The Razumkov Center conducted a poll between June 16 and 25. It included 2,009
respondents from all regions of Ukraine. A clear majority considered that the
law was linked to election strategy (65.1 percent). A very high number of western
Ukrainians believed that Ukrainian should be the only state language (84.4
percent), but elsewhere the picture was ambiguous. Overall, 25 percent of
respondents maintained that Russian should have the status of an official
language in certain regions, and 23.9 percent that it should be the second
state language of the country, i.e. almost half of respondents backed this view.
In eastern Ukraine (defined as Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, Luhansk,
and Kharkiv), only 13.6 percent thought that Ukrainian should be the only state
and official language, while about one-third believe that it should be the only
state language. But there was minimal support for the view that Russian should
replace Ukrainian as the main state or official language (http://razumkov.org.ua/ukr/news.php?news_id=400).
A Ratings poll of July 2012 provides
a broader picture of the language question. In Ukraine, 55 percent perceived
Ukrainian as their native language and 40 percent Russian. Ukrainian was
declared to be the native language of about 40 percent of eastern residents,
although in the Donbas specifically, some 80 percent cited Russian as their
native language, as did 70 percent of residents in the south. About 70 percent
of the supporters of the Regions Party are Russian speakers, along with half of
the members of the Communist Party.
But for the most part,
residents of Ukraine have had few language difficulties as far as official
documentation is concerned and, for example, understanding medication
instructions in Ukrainian, other than a few elderly people in the Donbas.
Still, 45 percent of Donbas residents support increased protection for the
Russian language; the opposite applies in the West where 80 percent think that
it is necessary to provide more support for the Ukrainian language.
Yet even among Regions
supporters, only 40 percent consider that Russian needs more protection in
Ukraine. Around 59 percent of native Russian speakers back the law introduced
by deputies Kolesnichenko and Kivalov; 62 percent of Ukrainian speakers oppose
it. Overall 42 percent are against the new law; 34 percent in favor (http://ratinggroup.com.ua/upload/files/RG_Movne_pytannia_072012.pdf). According to Iryna Bereshkina of
the “Democratic Initiatives” Foundation, the new language law has had little
impact on the election preferences of Ukrainian voters (http://news.dt.ua/POLITICS/zakon_pro_rosiysku_movu_niyak_ne_vplinuv_na_reytingi_regionaliv_i_opozitsiyi-108076.html).
The responses on the new
language law are not particularly decisive in any respect. Support for it is
lukewarm at best in all regions of Ukraine. Moreover, there are indications
from other polls of the growing patriotism in Ukraine (not to be confused with
nationalism) that embraces both eastern and western regions, as well as growing
support for a pro-European Union direction rather than toward the Russian-led
structures such as the Customs Union.
The Ratings Poll cited
above shows that the number of proponents of a united state with Russia has
declined steadily (42 percent today, as opposed to 47-48 percent in January),
and 54 percent are in favor of Ukraine joining the EU. Over the past six
months, the number of Ukrainians considering themselves to be “patriots” has
increased from 73 to 82 percent.
The rise is especially
notable in the east, including the Donbas oblasts, but not in the south. This
leads a UNIAN analyst to conclude that the rise in patriotism is especially
evident in the regions of Ukraine that hosted the Euro 2012 soccer competition,
though elsewhere in the poll, only 12% equated patriotism with sporting
victories. The place of one’s birth was the most significant factor behind
patriotism in all regions, although supporters of Regions and the Communist
Party were also tied to the historical past (presumably memories of the Soviet
era) (http://www.unian.ua/news/521037-na-donbasi-zrosla-kilkist-patriotiv-opituvannya.html).
The rise in patriotic
feeling, however, has not affected adversely Ukrainian attitudes to Russia,
based on the survey of the Research and Branding Group undertaken earlier this
year. The poll focused on the two cities generally considered to be the most
polarized, Lviv and Donetsk.
Almost half of the latter respondents see
Russia as a friendly state and 0 percent as a hostile one. In Lviv, only 7
percent think that Russia is a fraternal nation, and 30 percent of those polled
see it as simply a neighboring state without any close links. Yet very few even
in Lviv considered that Russia was a rival (12 percent) or hostile (9 percent).
In Donetsk about one-fifth
of respondents regarded Russia as a strategic partner—hardly an overwhelming
figure and 83 percent think that relations with the neighbor are friendly or a
mixture of good and bad (http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/1331039-opros-zhiteli-donecka-i-lvova-vyrazili-svoe-otnoshenie-k-rossii).
The consensus therefore on
Ukrainian attitudes today would appear to include the following: an increasing
affinity to Ukraine as an independent state that can maintain good relations
with its neighbors, irritation rather than anger at the new language law,
particularly in the western regions, and a slight preference for the EU over
the Russian-led Customs Union.
Translated into votes in
the parliamentary elections, the results may not differ profoundly from earlier
polls. Clearly four political parties will gain seats in the new Parliament,
having cleared the 5% barrier: the Party of Regions (21.5 percent),
Batkivshchyna (18.5%), UDAR (9.9 percent), and the Communists (9.1 percent) (http://news.dt.ua/POLITICS/vpevneno_prohodyat_u_radu,_yak_i_ranishe,_tilki_chotiri_partiyi-108633.html).
None of the other major
parties, such as Svoboda, Ukraina-Vpered! (which has only 3.1 percent support
despite the ‘coup” of having Andriy Shevchenko on the party list), or Our
Ukraine look likely to surpass the 5 percent figure.
In the case of Our Ukraine,
the party is for all intents and purposes defunct. The poll, conducted by
Ratings, perceives a modest rise in support for the Regions Party, but clearly
it is some way from anticipating a majority. Ukrainians have diverse views.
They recognize the limitations of their freedoms, they are suspicious of the
courts and the militia, and they are cynical toward the ruling Regions Party, but
they have not embraced with any degree of enthusiasm or firmness any political
alternatives to the ruling group. These attitudes could change if voters
perceive the elections to have been manipulated or if the Parliament that
results from them does not reflect the wishes of the voters.
David Marples is distinguished
university professor in the department of history and classics at the University
of Alberta in Canada.
