Obsessed with idea of a big Russian empire, blinded by immense power over his own nation, previous military victories in Chechnya and Georgia, inspired by Josef Stalin and other political figures of the past, as well as by relatively bloodless annexation of Crimea, Putin, who people thought of as a very rational politician, seems now to lose his political scent, and ready to get involved in a risky venture that may cost him, at least, the crash of the Russian Federation in its today’s form or his leadership.
After the seemingly costless annexation of Crimea, his attempt to gain more territory was not a surprise. Putin has been planning the operation for years and the Kyiv revolution was a long-awaited push for its start. According to the plan, the eastern pro-Russian Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are now the main separatist strongholds, were just a preface, aperitifs before more “tasty dish,” such as Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolayiv, Odesa, Kharkiv regions and, depending on success there, maybe more.
The Crimea was crucial not only because of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is situated there, but also because of its proximity to Ukraine’s south mainland, thus the control over peninsula gives Putin opportunity to send troops right to the southern border what we can observe now. Together with Russian-controlled region of Transnistria, it gives Kremlin possibilities to invade and try to take control over the Azov and Black Sea region, and move further. But not everything went according to the plan.
1. Political indifference in the east. Although the largest part of population in Luhansk and Donetsk regions supported Russia and was brainwashed by Kremlin propaganda, they were politically indifferent. The so-called Luhansk and Donetsk “peoples’ republics” were widely supported among locals but only morally – one thing is to promenade with a Russian flag on the peaceful street and another is to lay with Kalashnikov in a trench – people were not ready to die for the Russian idea. Separatists, ruled by Russian intelligent officers, felt a serious lack of recruits. They tried to close these holes forcing the locals or with Russian mercenaries. Moreover, after terror against civilians more and more locals became disenchanted with the rebel movement and disillusioned after seeing facts on the ground contrast with fictions in Russian media. The idea to make a civil war between east and west of Ukraine, where Russia could participate as a peacemaker – failed.
Of course for Putin this isn’t a reason to stop the operation and propagandistic media will show another, far from reality picture, but the war on East costs Russia more than it was planned, and shows that further participation in the conflict will lead to bigger casualties among Russians.
2. Ukrainian army, leaders. Former President Viktor Yanukovych and his government over past years have been doing everything to destroy the Ukrainian army. Evidently they cleaned the area for intervention. And according to plan when Russian troops could step on Ukrainian land (openly or as ‘humanitarian’ mission) there would be almost no one to fight. But they didn’t take into account the high level of patriotism that was alive not only in Lviv, Ivano-Frankisk and other western regions, but spread with the speed of light over the whole country, the new generation who identifies itself as Ukrainian and sees not a lot in common with northern neighbor. Across Ukraine, patriotically minded citizens unite in support of the impoverished military: flow of money and supplies are reaching the army via groups in social networks, websites, text messages and volunteer organizations. After Ukraine’s defense ministry issued an appeal for help for the impoverished armed forces, over the next four months, $11.7million was reportedly donated – including $2.8million from mobile phones, by people sending text messages to a special number, 565.
It is also known that together with Ukrainian regular army volunteer battalions such as Azov, Dnepr, Donbas and Aidar, fight against Russian-backed insurgents. The stories of jailed Ukrainian film director Oleh Sentsov, pilot Nadiya Savchenko, as well as Kyiv millionaire Vyacheslav Konstantinovsky, who has joined the army in Donbas, and has put his assets, including a Rolls Royce Phantom, on the market to benefit the military, inspire the country.
At the same time Ukraine seems to have finally strong political leaders – the President Petro Poroshenko, as well as Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, do not do everything perfectly and there are some claims maybe be put forward them, but in such a critical economic and military situation we have now, they seem to defend the interests of their country and doing it well although there are still many things have to be done. Actually Ukraine has got its own Saakshvilli.
At the same time military governance becomes more experienced and more efficient in planning and leading antiterrorist operations, as well as we can use now the experience of Georgia and do not make the same mistakes. In spite of all provocations made by Russians, shelling of Ukrainian troops from their territory, our army has not given them a direct reason to invade as it was in 2008 with Gerogia.
All this has a tangible impact on Ukraine’s performance in the battlefield: during last weeks national forces have made big advances, pushing the rebels out of territory they have held for three months and closing in on Donetsk and Luhansk, the region’s largest cities and last major rebel strongholds. Without Russian help the riot will be stifled very soon.
3. Malaysia Airlines MH17 plane crash. This tragedy, which killed 298 people from different countries, became a turning point in Ukraine-Russia conflict. Ben Judah, the author of “Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In And Out Of Love With Vladimir Putin” expressed brilliantly, when he wrote: “The rebels blew up more than a plane. They blew up Russia’s winning position in Brussels against sanctions” <…> “Russia’s European diplomacy now lies in the wreckage of the MH17”. Although reaction inside Russia was weak, world public has drastically changed its attitude towards Putin. Unlike the Kremlin, Western politicians are obliged to report to their people and react on public’s wrath, which was directed against Russia’s leader. As a result – a new package of sanctions was imposed that hit not only individuals from Putin’s close circle, but targeted the key sectors of the Russian economy. So, here we go to another thing which was out of plan.
4. The reaction of the West. Russia’s economy is at zero growth despite high oil prices and is already teetering on the edge of recession. The move to close the access of Russian state banks to Western financial markets will hurt not only the Kremlin’s coffers, but also the Russian oligarchs whose companies are tied into them. Did Putin expect this? Unlikely. Russian President supposed that Europe would close eyes on his Ukrainian deeds, as it was with Georgia in 2008. And it is not the end, the sanctions war will continue on three fronts. The first one is Western sanctions against Russia. The second front is Russian sanctions against west that actually hurt Russians far more than Westerners. “Russia sanctioned itself” is a right description of the recent food embargo that Kremlin imposed as an answer to economic sanctions from the West.
The third front is Ukrainian sanctions. We all know that Europe is dependent on natural gas imports from Russia. If Moscow really wanted to harm EU it would turn off the gas provoking an energy crisis. But Russia is also dependent on gas exports to Europe that’s why it may only threaten West with higher energy prices. But there is a third and the central part of the conflict – Ukraine, which has little to lose. The country doesn’t receive gas from Russia since June 16, when OAO Gazprom cut its supplies in a debt and pricing dispute but serves as a vital route for Russian oil and gas to European customers. On August 8 Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has warned that government might cut complete or partly Russian oil and gas flows through its territory. Yatsenyuk said the Ukrainian parliament was expected to vote on the bill on August 12. There is a high probability that Ukrainian Government will use this instrument to pressure Putin.
Besides sanctions West will help Ukraine with money and military supplies – this help will be vaster and vaster, it will be like a fuel and will make Russian war against Ukraine long-term, more devastating for both sides, what can cause instability and disappointment inside Russia.
5. Defeat in informational war.
From the beginning Putin tried to present situation in Ukraine as internal conflict or civil war where he can put on sheep’s clothing and assume the role of peacemaker, but he underestimated such a huge power nowadays as Internet and mobile technologies. Did Russian President, who built his dream on the strategies of the past times, could consider that all his long and well-planned informational tactics would crumble like a house of cards just because Russian pubertal soldiers like to make selfies on a buk forgetting to switch off their geo-tagging, or upload photos of military trucks carrying Grad rockets toward Ukraine’s border on Vkontakte? That, while Moscow solemnly denied accusations in participation in conflict, local citizens from Russian village Gukovo, Rostov region, would shoot and publish on YouTube a video showing the shelling Ukraine with GRAD from Russian territory? In spite of powerful propaganda machine Russia definitely lost the informational war and everything they do now in this field aimed only at domestic consumer.
Yet, in a country where criticism is rare and can result in exile or prison, most remain silent. But I strongly believe that the ranks of people who do not support their government are much bigger than we may suppose, we just do not hear them now. Russia, economically weak, devastated and tired of corruption, lawlessness, cruelty of “siloviki” (security or military services) and courts that already broke destinies of thousands of innocent citizens, frequent violations of human rights and dignity, attack on freedom of speech, wars and terroristic attacks, internal arrests and political murders, poverty in rural regions… How many lives have been already destroyed by the system over last decades? Do you really think that families, friends of these victims love Putin? And why does Kremlin try to take control over internet now if everything is so good? There is much more behind the facade of national “love”. Russia is more like a tinderbox – one small sparkle and it may explode. The full-scale long, fatally destructive for both countries, war in Ukraine will be this sparkle. It is evident now that it will not be so fast and easy for Russia as previous military operations. It will harm all levels of Russian society – Putin’s close “friends” and top oligarchs who much more care about their profits than political ambitions of Russian president, as well as ordinary citizens. The less what may wait for Putin is conspiracy inside his own circle with goal to remove him, the more – economic, political collapse, which will lead to a bloody power shift.
Russian President faces a choice: to step back and remain as a winner with Crimea in his hands or to go further and to lose everything, entering the history as disgraceful ex-KGB dictator. What wins – cold rationalism or thoughtless emotions – we will see very soon.
