On Aug. 12, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in an interview with RFE/RL in Prague condemned the violent crackdown on peaceful protesters in Belarus and said that the United States would discuss with European partners the appropriate response. An ending of oil shipments to Belarus may be considered as one of the measures. But the implementation of energy sanctions against Belarus not only will have a negative impact on the protesters who are fighting now for their rights, but will also play into the hands of the enemy who hasn’t yet officially entered the stage.
Like Ukraine, Belarus has been always suffering from energy dependence on Russia. Gas and oil supplies are often being used by Kremlin as a tool of pressure on post-Soviet countries, and Minsk is not an exception. In February, Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko directly accused Moscow of using energy prices to force the country to agree on the so-called Union State, which in fact means absorption of Belarus by its neighbor and losing its statehood and independence.
Thus, Belarus dictator has been seeking diversification of oil and gas sources to sever Moscow’s energy grip. Supplies of oil from North America became a step forward in this direction. The first tanker ship with 77,000 tons of U.S. Bakken oil blend for Belarus came to the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda on June 5.
The second ship, with 76,000 tons onboard, has delivered White Eagle oil blend, which was specially developed as an analogue replacement of the Russian blend Urals.
Moreover, earlier this year Lithuanian Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas introduced Minsk his help in contributing to reducing Gazprom’s dominance. He said that Lithuania is ready to support the launch of oil and gas delivery from Klaipeda port to Belarus. Vaiciunas added that it may be also possible to deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Belarus through the Poland-Lithuania (GIPL) pipeline once it has been built in early 2022. This, however, is possible only in cooperation with Russia, that since 2011 has been controlling Belarus’ gas transmission pipelines.
At any rate, Lukashenko is trying to free Belarus from the Russian energy trap even though there are all reasons to blame the dictator for bringing his country to that trap.
“We should not be dependent on one country. You understand this perfectly well,” said Lukashenko in August. “That is why we are cooperating with others in this area, including Poland.”
In such a situation, implementing energy sanctions against Belarus will push the dictator further in the corner and may force him to agree on Russia conditions, which will put under the question the existence of Belarus itself. This will have bad outcomes for the Belarusian people.
The winner will be only one – Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Victoria Petrenko is the senior website editor for the Kyiv Post.
