But deeper sanctions can be more
dangerous for Ukraine.
The EU and Ukraine are caught
in the same trap as last winter. It seems that no matter what they do, Russia
wins.
On Feb. 21, EU ministers held
long talks with then-President Viktor Yanukovych, the opposition and Russian
representative Vladimir Lukin, after which Polish Foreign Minister Radislaw Sikorski
and German Foreing Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier left the Presidential
Administration with drooping faces and refused to answer reporters’ questions.
Later, an agreement signed by Yanukovych and opposition leaders, was spelled out to the public. It called
for early presidential elections in December.
But it was too late. The situation
at that time was already so critical that only the resignation of the president
and government would pacify the people.
Ukrainians understood that
Yanukovych would jail activists and establish a dictatorship if left in power.
So a free presidential election could not take place.
Why did EU representatives
support Yanukovych then?
Why did Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko,
then an opposition leader, ask people on the Maidan to go home after
unsuccessful talks with Yanukovych?
Why did German Chancellor
Angela Merkel have so many secret negotiations with Putin on Ukraine? Maybe
because the political leaders knew what Putin would do in case of the EuroMaidan
Revolution’s victory and decided that better to have a new Belarus than
Czechoslovakia? In any case Putin only won by either having a peace controlled
by him in Ukraine with Yanukovych in power, or taking Crimea and possibly southeastern
Ukraine.
Ukrainians had to make a
difficult choice and we did it.
A new package of sanctions
against key sectors of the Russian economy is not as toothless as previous
ones. They will weaken the Russian economy. But at the same time, the danger is
that they can force Putin to retaliate, to act more aggressively and who knows
how far he can go.
Let’s consider that Europe is dependent
on Russia for gas, and that the Russian army is ranked as second among military
powers on the world, while the Ukrainian one is 21st, according to Global Firepower report. Ukraine’s fight for independence will
not have strong support of the West and can turn into a bloody battle with huge
losses. If NATO decides to help – Ukraine may become a new Afghanistan where
two big military powers flex muscles.
If so, delaying sanctions is
also understandable. It gives Putin time to ponder the consequences of the future
conflict, which will be a real disaster not just for Ukraine but for
economically weak and poor Russia as well, and politically damaging for Putin.
Delay gives him a chance to take a step back.
At the same time, clever
policies by Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko can help Putin to save face among
Russians. It also gives Ukraine time to equip army and conduct such important for us reforms.
Meanwhile, the EU may pressure
Russia by imposing additional restrictions against people than economic sectors
to give more time for Putin for making the right decision before adopting a
tougher package of economic sanctions. Let’s hope Putin will take the right
decision. If not – a new package of strict sanctions will be used soon and Ukrainians
may face a new tough choice – a big long war for independence, which will lead
to Putin’s downfall, but will cost us many lives, or federalization and return
at least half of Ukraine under the control of a neighboring state.
So, maybe it is better to give
him more time, to try all methods to stop him and prevent the war, before
moving past the point where these methods will no longer work.
Kyiv Post website editor Victoria Petrenko can be
reached at [email protected]
