The very fact that Obama and Yanukovych met on the margins of the nuclear security summit – and the official word that there would be such a meeting didn’t come out of the White House until two days before – sends a very important signal that the U.S. intends to engage with the new Ukrainian leadership. It also sends an important signal to the International Monetary Fund to re-engage with Ukraine, to Brussels that the U.S. is prepared to do its part to help and so should the European Union and to Moscow that the “reset” policy with Russia will not come at the expense of relations with Ukraine. There is even talk of the possibility of a return trip to Washington before the end of the year for a more formal visit and meeting with Obama.
In a joint statement after their meeting on Monday, Obama and Yanukovych affirmed the “strategic partnership” between the two countries, reconfirmed the security assurances recorded in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, and also reinforced the United States-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership. It is vital for Yanukovych to understand that the West is prepared to work with his government, that he has a Western option to pursue, and that Russia is not his only place to turn. The descriptions of him as the “pro-Russian” candidate in the election campaign were unfair – he’s pro-Ukrainian first and foremost – but were the West to show little interest in his country’s future, Yanukvoych wouldn’t have much choice but to turn east.
At the same time, repairing the badly damaged relationship with Moscow is also important, as long as it is done in a way that fully preserves Ukraine’s freedom of movement and sovereignty (and reassuring on this score has been Yanukovych’s response to Russian entreaties to join the customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan). Yanukovych and those who support him want to live in a strong, independent Ukraine, not as vassals to Russia. Repeated trips to Moscow by Yanukovych and people in his government are essential to deal with the bilateral energy relationship and other pressing issues, but they need to be balanced by visits to Western capitals – and by Western officials to Kyiv.
The joint statement between Obama and Yanukvoych mentions “shared values,” including democracy, but focuses more on security and nuclear issues (not surprising given the theme of the summit). Still, there have been questions early on about his presidency. The controversial Constitutional Court ruling that the coalition formed in the Verkhovna Rada was legal did not get much attention during Yanukovych’s visit to Washington but lurks in the background as creeping signs of rule-bending. The Constitution, after all, is pretty clear that a majority in the Rada can only be formed by factions, not by individual defecting deputies, and yet the coalition that agreed on the Mykola Azarov-led government came about as a result of individuals’ switching sides.
In addition, there have been awards by Ukrainian authorities to the Castro brothers in Cuba three weeks ago and the disbanding of state bodies handling NATO and Euro-Atlantic integration (though there were several dozen such bodies disbanded and that is fairly routine in transitions). Moreover, there is a general concern that the balance of power has shifted so heavily toward Yanukvoych and his Party of Regions that the opposition will be neutered and the media and civil society will be ignored or, worse, silenced. Avoiding divisive debates on issues essential to Ukraine’s identity is also important.
Ukraine desperately needs a united government and has suffered from not having one since the days of the Orange Revolution. Certainly Yanukovych was touting the fact that there is one team in charge in Kyiv – and that can be good. But it can also be risky if there are insufficient checks and balances in place. American interlocutors cannot stress enough to their Ukrainian counterparts the importance for Ukraine of staying on a democratic path. Such a path is best for Ukraine, for the region, and for deepening American-Ukrainian relations.
David J. Kramer is a senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, served as assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights and labor and as deputy assistant secretary for Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and Moldova in the George W. Bush administration.
