WASHINGTON, D.C. — Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst believes that the attack by Russian forces against Ukrainian Navy vessels on Nov. 25 was intended to provoke Kyiv into a strong military response that would give Moscow a pretext for a larger attack on Ukraine.
He said that, by showing restraint and limiting its response to largely diplomatic activity, Kyiv “can turn a Russian tactical victory into a strategic defeat.”
Herbst, who is the director of its Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, was speaking to journalists at the Washington-based think tank on the morning of Nov. 26. If, instead of being able to portray Ukrainians as the aggressors, Moscow is hit by “serious new sanctions,” Herbst said that would personally hurt Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s standing among Russians who would see a direct connection between his behavior and their deteriorating economy.
Herbst expected that Washington would ratchet up sanctions against Moscow and said: “I expect a very tough reaction from the U.S. government. Not as fast as we’d like… but there will be one. If the West doesn’t respond to this (aggression), the danger of this being repeated goes up.”
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Another former American ambassador, Daniel Fried, agreed that the U.S. should increase sanctions if necessary, but should wait a short while to see if Russia de-escalates.
Herbst was in no doubt that Moscow had carefully planned the Sunday attack and that “for Moscow, it was a convenient time when Washington was on (Thanksgiving) vacation and Europe was consumed by Brexit.”
He said: “Clearly the Russians were prepared to act as they have and it had been cleared at high levels in Moscow, but the actual timing was driven by the fact that the Ukrainians were trying to increase their naval presence in the Sea of Azov. It’s unimaginable that the Russian sailors in the straits of Kerch would have fired upon Ukrainian vessels without this being cleared way at the top of the chain to Mr. Putin himself or someone very close to him.”
The White House was largely silent about the incident Sunday with no comments from senior administration officials until the following day.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday condemned the Russian actions as representing “a dangerous escalation and a violation of international law.” He called on Russia “to return to Ukraine its vessels and detained crew members, and to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, extending to its territorial waters.”
At an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council Ambassador Nikki Haley, U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN firmly pinned the blame for Sunday’s incident on Moscow calling it “an arrogant act that the international community must condemn and will never accept.”
She said: “Sunday’s outrageous violation of sovereign Ukrainian territory is part of a pattern of Russian behavior that includes the purported annexation of Crimea, and abuses against countless Ukrainians in Crimea, as well as stoking conflict that has taken the lives of more than ten thousand people in eastern Ukraine, and it shows no sign of decreasing.
U.S. special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker, who recently suggested that America should enhance Ukraine’s naval capabilities by providing lethal weapons to defend against Russian vessels, added his voice to the condemnations He mocked, in tweet, Moscow’s accusation that the clash was Kyiv’s fault: “Russia rams Ukrainian vessel peacefully traveling toward a Ukrainian port. Russia seizes ships and crew and then accuses Ukraine of provocation???”
Herbst said: “We all know that President Trump has some unexplained affection for the Kremlin and Mr. Putin but that has not prevented his administration from taking very strong steps against Kremlin aggression – actually more than the Obama administration – and I expect that dynamic will play out here too.”
He believes Congress, which has previously supported Ukraine considerably with sanctions and military aid, will step up those measures in response to the Azov Sea incident. He said the U.S. and NATO should consider increasing their naval presence in the Black Sea.
Asked about the possibility of Western naval ships escorting merchant vessels to Ukrainian ports to prevent them being harassed by Russia, he pointed out that the Ukrainian-Russian treaty over shared control of the Azov Sea, allows Russia to act against any non-Ukrainian or Russian ships entering the waters. But he said Russia had already breached the terms of that agreement by its hostile actions against Ukrainian vessels.
Herbst predicted that because the incident failed to provoke the vigorous military response the Kremlin hoped for, Moscow’s propaganda machine would focus on the Ukrainian government’s introduction of martial law, scheduled to start Wednesday for 30 days, in order to deflect attention from its aggression on Sunday. He warned that the media should not be diverted from the Azov Sea episode by following any Kremlin narrative about the proposed.
