The United States is very concerned that Russia will interfere in Ukraine’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in March, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst said during an interview with the Kyiv Post at the 15th Yalta European Strategy or YES conference in Kyiv on Sept. 15.
“I don’t think that (Washington is) concerned about an unfair election in Ukraine. The expectation is that the government will run a free and fair election and… that all candidates will have access to the media especially major television stations,” said Herbst, who is a leading U.S. expert on Ukraine as well as the director of think tank Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
“But there’s also the full expectation that the Kremlin will interfere… during the elections and there’s a great deal of concern about that.”
Herbst, who was the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine under George W. Bush (2003-2006), was instrumental in conveying to then-president Bush that Ukraine should not join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, a political and economic union of states including Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, which Moscow touted as a European Union alternative.
While Ukraine is now in an association agreement with the EU that went into force from September 2017, the country is still struggling to attract Western investments. With regard to U.S. investors specifically, Herbst said that there has been a slight increase in interest in recent years, but only at a marginal level.
“Some people are coming to the view that as a result of the war, as a result of years of little reform, assets in Ukraine are right now priced very low, so some think now maybe is the time to invest in Ukraine,” Herbst said.
“On the other hand, the war remains an obstacle to investment, and of course the serious corruption in the courts and in the law enforcement agencies is a serious barrier to investments as well.
“We want to encourage reform, we think that’s critical for the country’s future, we believe that the government of Ukraine needs some persuasion to make the necessary changes.”
Herbst was mainly referring to the reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund:
the establishment of an anti-corruption court, the increase of domestic natural gas prices to match the price of imported gas, and the containment of a state budget deficit within the promised 2.5 percent of the gross domestic product (today it is closer to 4 percent).
But the retired U.S. diplomat said he doesn’t think that the United States has failed in its foreign policies in relation to Ukraine, or sees it on the periphery of U.S. international relations.
Former U.S. President George Bush (L) points as John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, looks on during a visit in Kyiv on May 21, 2004. (AFP)
“I think that’s an incorrect view of Washington’s approach to Ukraine,” Herbst said. “Maybe not since independence, but certainly for a long time, Washington has recognized that Ukraine is an important country, and that good relations with Ukraine serve American interests. A Ukraine that is moving decisively to establish a democracy and a market economy is a good thing for Ukraine and a good thing got the United States.”
Since 2014, the United States has been paying more attention to Ukraine because of Moscow’s war in eastern Donbas and the annexation of Crimea, but also because of the Kremlin’s interference in 2016 U.S. presidential elections.
During one of the YES conference panels, former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, a Democrat, said that despite his strong criticisms of President Donald Trump, the president’s administration has had a generally good foreign policy approach.
Herbst agrees with McFaul.
“The Trump Administration’s policies towards Ukraine – and in that matter towards Russia – have been better than the Obama Administration,” Herbst said.
“Trump’s own instincts seem to be very soft, weak, but those instincts have not changed the policy of the administration. His administration has been tougher on Russia with sanctions with the expulsion of diplomats than Obama, and also they’ve been more supportive of Ukraine especially with the decision to send Javelins, and that’s because: one, Congress is firmly behind such policies; and two – all of Trump’s senior advisers (are as well).”
And Herbst says that Ukraine can expect to see more U.S. sanctions coming in against Russia.
“I would certainly endorse increasing sanctions, and I suspect that is going to happen,” he said.
One of the major criticisms against former U.S. President Barack Obama’s foreign policy in relation to Ukraine was that he never visited the country during his eight years of presidency.
But Herbst is skeptical that Trump will visit Ukraine.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see (U.S. Vice President Michael) Pence come. I’m not sure we will see Trump,” he said.
Herbst added that Washington’s stance with regard to reform in Ukraine has been “remarkably” consistent since 2014 after the EuroMaidan Revolution and the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and that a reform-based approach was the right way to provide financial support to Ukraine.
