As martial law in Ukraine comes to an end, it has had a questionable effect on the country’s overall security as experts continue to warn that Russia is gearing up for new attacks, on land and at sea.
At 2 p.m. Kyiv time on Dec. 26, the presidential decree that imposed a 30-day period of martial law across 10 Ukrainian regions effectively expired, formally bringing most of the country back to its usual peacetime footing.
During an afternoon meeting of Ukraine’s Defense and Security Council, President Petro Poroshenko announced that he had decided not to invoke his right to extend the martial law regime, ending it on the day and time it was supposed to conclude, even though the threat of Russian invasion remained present.
From the president’s perspective, imposing martial law in parts of the country following the Nov. 25 Russian attack against three Ukrainian military vessels cruising to the Kerch Strait in the Black Sea, was a timely and necessary step. The president also said, as the last month had demonstrated, it was also an effective step.
“The Ministry of Defense and the General Staff has conducted a redeployment of troops to locations where they are most needed for repelling possible attacks of Russia,” Poroshenko noted.
“Seriously amplified was air defense in southern and eastern regions, delivery of vehicles and military hardware to troops was boosted by 2-3 months, and first-wave reserve troops were called up for training in combat brigades and boot camps. Once again, we perceived the very powerful shoulder of support from combat veterans that proved themselves ready to get back into (our) ranks immediately, at any time.”
He also added that the number of army reservists approaching their local military recruitment offices to find out whether they can get back into service throughout the period of martial law had turned out to be 3-4 times larger than expected.
And, Poroshenko said, the stressful regime of the 30-day period had revealed numerous problems in the country’s military administration, which would be studied and fixed.
According to the Ukrainian leader, many of the measures taken by the military at both a strategic and tactical level over the past month were very hard, if not impossible, to make without switching to a wartime footing.
But Poroshenko did not specify which of the mentioned decisions undertaken throughout the period of martial law had actually demanded such measures.
The president also claimed that the special security measures under martial law had also helped reduce the amount of crimes committed in the 10 oblasts by 26 percent.
Poroshenko also said that the shock following the Nov. 25 incident, as well as the intense work of Ukrainian diplomats abroad, had helped draw more attention to the Kremlin’s aggression against Ukraine and particularly prompted the European Union to extend its sanctions on Russia by six more months on Dec. 13.
“In composition with martial law, the support and drastic actions of our international partners, and their pressure upon the Kremlin….has stopped the worst-case scenario, particularly planned by the Russian Federation. Our military servicemen, our diplomats, our partners all together prevented (the Russian president Vladimir) Putin from crossing a new red line.”
But, at the same time, the martial law regime failed to advance any efforts to bring home all 24 Ukrainian sailors kept prisoner in Russia after the Nov. 25 incident, he added.
The president said the special security regime proved to be merciful on Ukraine’s society and economy.
“As promised, martial law has practically had no effect on civilians and brought no restrictions of constitutional rights and inflicted no negative effect on the national economy, in spite of what we’re being scared of,” Poroshenko said.
“Instead, we received macroeconomic aid from the European Union, we got credit tranches from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, part of which has already been added to Ukraine’s treasury. And the rate of Hryvnia has increased over the past weeks.”
Amid a barrage of criticism over the possible cancellation or postponement of the presidential campaign that is due to start in January, Poroshenko repeatedly affirmed that he guaranteed the presidential elections will be held on March 31, 2019, without any delays.
“I’ll be sincere: if it were not for elections, we would have asked the Verkhovna Rada to extend this martial law,” he said.
Nonetheless, according to him, Russia still keeps concentrating immense military power near its border with Ukraine, as well as in occupied Crimea and Donbas, and that Ukraine’s defense and security agencies remain vigilant on the possibility of a Russian invasion.
In his speech, he also attacked “the so-called opposition” that, from his perspective, “voiced the Kremlin’s propaganda narrative” holding Ukraine responsible for the Nov. 24 attack in the Kerch Strait and criticized him for the decision to impose martial law.
He did not mention any specific names of the adversaries he called “the Kremlin’s fifth column.”
The historic Nov. 26 decision to introduce martial law in Ukraine, after nearly five years of defending itself against Russia’s hybrid war, initially envisaged a 60-day period of war footing all over the country. However, after fierce debates in the parliament, Poroshenko agreed to reduce the duration of martial law to only 30 days and declare it only in 10 Ukrainian regions bordering Russia, Russian-controlled Transnistria, and the southern sea coast.
Besides, Poroshenko vowed not to curtail any civil rights and liberties in this period, despite such an option being made possible in the legislation. It took more than two days for the parliament and the president to eventually authorize the martial law regime, which officially entered force only on Nov. 28.
The period of martial law seemed to bring very few tangible benefits to the country’s defense and security, with measures generally limited only to a call-up of several hundred reserve troops for up to 20-day drills, the stationing of more troops near the Russian border and occupied Crimea and a certain increase of security at critical infrastructure.
Military and police personnel had all vacations and weekend leave canceled and the Armed Forces were switched to increased combat alert. But there was neither partial or general mobilization, or the involvement of additional economic resources for the nation’s immediate protection. Additionally, no extra construction of additional defensive measures took place. Public gatherings and cultural events were also not canceled, despite a reported high invasion threat from Russia.
By Dec. 18, according to Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak, the Armed Forces had already in general accomplished all tasks set for throughout the martial law regime.
The Verkhovna Rada, even without waiting for martial law to expire, ceased working on Dec. 21 for the Christmas and New Year holidays until Jan. 15.
